Monday, 7 April 2025

Fear of Black Monday from Trade War To Be a Self-Fufilling Prophecy?

Just be careful when many folks are shouting out Black Monday for today's trading......we may just witness the self-fufilling prophecy theory in motion with everyone rushing for the exit and much panic selling. In a recession (which is starting to look like a Global Depression if worldwide trading volume drop substantially), even if interest rates are cut, SREITS will also not escape unscathed. Not sure whether Frasers Centrepoint Trust ("FCT") rights issue at this juncture will go through smoothly- assuming a global market bloodbath this week, if unit price of FCT drops below S$2.05 per unit, then the rights issue will be a gone case. So don't be the first one to rush in to subscribe for the rights. Wait till the end of subscription period to assess further.  

Nonetheless, I do not think I will be adjusting for my cash investment porfolios. Also being vested in the market for the long term rather than playing trading suits me better. No one knows what Donald Trump is playing and maybe he will do a sudden reversal of his tariff threats. I am glad that 1 month ago, I have commenced adjusting my CPF Endowus portfolio configuration from mostly equities focused into a 70% bond and 30% equities. On hindsight, maybe should have just converted 100% of the unit trusts into bond funds. As for my other CPF direct investment into SGX REITs index fund recently, I think I will just leave it for now. Looking forward to deploy rest of my CPF OA into the US market if the S&P 500 crashes to COVID-19 level.

Keep your fingers crossed folks. 

2 comments:

  1. Great that you have ample liquidity at such times, able to buy at distressed prices!
    I no funds, just sit one corner and watch show 😂

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    1. Bro BF, you are too modest lah, your upcoming quarter dividend income and monthly excess cash are ammo waiting to be deployed. My cash on hand low as usual….so have to wait for replenishment. CPF OA still got some to use only lah…..haha.

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