Here we go again. The Middle East is witnessing a direct, dangerous escalation as Iran and Israel trade heavy blows. Iran is going amok once more and firing missiles and drones at everyone in the Middle East. Netanyahu is not happy with Iran firing missiles into its territory and counter attacked Iran again- the Israeli even targeted a vital petrochemical hub in Mahshahr. So much for the fragile ceasefire that Donald Trump is struggling to maintain. It is like a full circus in operation. The only difference between the circus and the US-Iran war is that many innocent civilians are being slaughtered in senseless bloodshed.
1. From "Maximum Pressure" to a Worse Deal: The Donald Trump-Obama Irony
there is a profound, almost surreal irony in how the current administration has handled the Iranian nuclear issue.
The Backstory: In 2018, Donald Trump famously pulled the US out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the landmark nuclear deal orchestrated by the Obama administration. Trump criticized it as "the worst deal ever," promising that his "maximum pressure" campaign of heavy economic sanctions would force Tehran to crawl back to the negotiating table for a much stricter, more comprehensive agreement.
The Backfire: Fast forward through a devastating regional war that began with massive joint US-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury), and the tactical reality looks vastly different. Instead of a weaker Iran, the US faced a completely shut-down Strait of Hormuz, a massive regional war, and an Iran that had already advanced its uranium enrichment far beyond 2015 levels.
The Bitter Pill: In trying to negotiate a new peace treaty and nuclear framework through international mediators, the Trump administration has found itself cornered. Tehran has proven unyielding on zero-enrichment demands, and any potential new deal will likely have to concede to an Iran that holds significantly more geopolitical leverage, a massive missile arsenal, and an advanced nuclear threshold than it ever did under Obama's original pact. Trump wanted a historic victory; instead, he is left trying to patch up a fractured region while staring down a much tougher adversary. The decision to launch air strikes in Iran and kill its senior leaders is a total miscalculation by Trump thinking that Iran will be begging US for mercy.
2. Solution to End the US Iran War
The Iranians do not trust US under Donald Trump. This guy is really the King of "Sheet- Stirring". The only way out of US's current misery is for Donald Trump to pretend to have a stroke and then resign as president to save his bruised ego. Ok, I know that this is impossible and farfetched.....I am just imagining this in my dream.
Parting Thoughts
The longer the Straits of Hormuz remains closed, the more severe will be our energy shortage crisis. The world is dangerously close to a recession with high energy price that is causing inflation to rear its ugly head. I don't think the US Fed under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh, will allow interest rates to be lowered further. Coupled with the current DRAM bubble already close to bursting (not just correction), the global economy is staring down at a massive implosion from AI play. Sadly, the SREITs holding in my investment portfolios remain in the doldrum and engulfed in perpetual crises that derail the recovery of this sector for close to 7 years.
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