Asian Pay TV Trust- Updates on Results release

Results for APTT announced on 12th Nov'13. Results and dividends distribution as per original IPO forecast. In addition, APTT also going ahead with network expansion across greater Tai Chung area in Taiwan. This expansion drive will give it access to an additional 400,000 household.

In view of it's recent price drop, APTT has declined to an extremely attractive price of S$0.77 per unit which translates to an annual dividend yield of 10.71% yield. Also, there is even more room for distribution to improve due to new potential customers which will widen it's subscriber base. 

Asian Pay TV Trust- Why its price keep dropping?

Over the past 1 week, I observed that Asian Pay TV Trust ("APTT") dropped below the resistance level of $0.80. It declined to an all time low of $0.775 by end of 1 Nov'13. APPT IPO debut in May'13 at $0.97. Based on the current price, it represents a shocking plunge of approximately $0.20 drop per unit or 20% decline in its market value within half a year. Another peculiar point is that the Sep'13 results will only be announced on 12th Nov'13....but there were sudden sell off by current investors. Is it insider trading and the results from APPT is going to be a major disappointment? 

Well, my own analysis is that APTT is a very much misunderstood stock. The market is pricing risk and reward at 10.6% yield based on $0.775 per unit.....this is crazy. I have been holding on to APTT since its Macquarie International Infrastructure Funds days which was 5 years ago. APTT had performed magnificently in terms of capital growth and dividend income (I entered into the market during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008).....for me, this has always been an excellent cash cow and I believe it will continue its stellar performance for the following reasons:

(1) There is no major change in the management of APTT. It is a team which has a consistent track record of delivering results and executing strategic plans in business development in Taiwan.

(2) Potential competitors will have a tough time competing with APTT which already has the basic infrastructures in place. It will be tough for any competitors to try to sustain operations till they achieved the same economy of scale.

(3) Content on offer by Taiwan Broadband Communications such as HBO, National Geographic, Discovery Channel etc. are solid. There are over 105 TV channels in the basic package alone. Internet download of programs are currently still somewhat lacking in content. I foresee consumers still onto paid TV for many many years. Anyway, if technology and lifestyle change, there will still be ample time to get out before it truly became a sunset industry.

(4) My valuation using the discounted dividend model arrived at close to $1 per unit. Also, net asset per unit is around $0.92. Hence based on current pricing, there is a significant margin of safety in mopping up more shares in APTT. Over the past few days, I have acquired another 10,000 units, taking advantage of the declining pricing.

(5) The cash flow is sustainable bearing any major mishap. APTT management has reduced leverage significantly over the years. They have learnt many invaluable lessons during the last 2008 recession. 10.6% yield means one will be able to recoup one's investment in less than 10 years. The current yield is very much worth the risk taking.

Of course, the main concern will be whether APTT can get their broadcast license renewed in another 5 years. Based on what APTT has built up, this should not be a major hurdle.

The financial results to be announced soon will indicate whether my analysis are on the right track. As the saying goes, no risk no gain.

Midtown Residences Review (Hougang Central)

DEVELOPER: Oxley-Lian Beng Pte Ltd
LOCATION: 1189 Upper Serangoon Road, 3 min walk to Hougang MRT
TENURE/STATUS: 99 Years
LAND SIZE: 57,047 sqft
BUILDING DETAIL:
Basement 2- Residential Car park
Basement 1- Commercial car park & Supermarket
Level 1-Duplex Restaurant & Retail Shops
Level 2-Duplex Restaurant & Retail Shops
Level 3-Facilities Deck & Residential SOHO Units
Level 4-9-Residential SOHO Units
Level 10-11-Duplex Penthouses
CAR PARK: 162 Residential lots; 87 commercial lots
ESTIMATED TOP DATE:31st December 2018

TOTAL NO. OF UNITS: 160 Residential SOHO units (3.3m high ceiling)

• 1+Study (452sf)
• 2-bedroom (646-667sf)
• 3-bedroom (710-743sf)
• 2-bedroom Duplex Penthouse (840sf)
• 3-bedroom Duplex Penthouse (1292sf)
• 3-bedroom Triplex Penthouse with Roof Terrace(1570sf)

 

107 Shops (Including Duplex Restaurant, Supermarket and F&B Shop) 
• Duplex Restaurant (from 700sf, 55 units)
• Retail shops (322-344sf, 51 units)
• Supermarket (3300sf, 1 unit)

 

 

Review

The joy of everyday living comes alive at Midtown Residences! Hougang MRT and bus interchange is a mere 3 minutes walk away. In addition, all amenities are already built up in the mature estate of Hougang Central. So one does not need further elaboration on the excellent location for this development. There are also 2 level of shops planned for this mixed development. Residents thus can enjoy much convenience with shopping downstairs whenever they get bored at home.

 

Units Layout

Good rectangular design which is efficient space planning. However, the unit sizes are extremely small. For example, 3 bedrooms here are only 67sqm. My sense is that the units available are more suited for rental investment rather than for family living. Good thing is that the units comes with a 3.3M high ceiling hence the volume is increased which makes living in this development bearable by increasing the space available. Mezzanine floor can be built for the bedrooms to make use of the high ceiling. Bedroom on the Mezzanine and study below design is an option to make good use of space.

 

Interesting Points to highlight

(1) The parking for residents is at basement 2 whereas basement 1 is for shops owners and shoppers. Problem is each unit is entitled to only 1 lot. There may be parking issues for relatives and friends. It will be kind of embarrassing to ask them to park at the HDB multi storey carpark and then walk over to Midtown. But I guess if most of the units are for rental, then the tenants will be relying more on the MRT for transport hence freeing up enough lots for visiting relatives and friends.

 

(2) Facilities are fairly decent such as a 20m lap pool. There is also a multi purpose court where one can play basketball.

 

(3) Prices after discount is still at over 1450psf.This is shocking high. However, quantum remains affordable with the small unit sizes. Less than 1 Million dollars for a 3 bedder.

 

Final thoughts:

There are actually still lots of potential for further capital appreciation. The huge plot of land near Hougang MRT remains undeveloped. It is being reserved for a Mega shopping mall and residential project.

 

Soilbuild REIT- A Race to the Bottom

The Soilbuild REIT IPO debuts at $0.78 per share on 16 August 2013. It is 5.4 times oversubscribed and raised a total of S$929 mil. I was initially very excited as I was alloted 3 lots for the IPO. Unfortunately, it tanked immediately on the first day of its debut and shed 6% by closing. It became a race to the door for many investors. This was a sharp contrast to the recent SPH REIT IPO where price went up almost 10% on the first day of trading. 

Over the next few days, I accumulated over another 14 lots which help brings down the investment to an average price of $S0.735. I thought I got a good bargain with the discount to net asset placed out and a higher annual dividend yield at 8% but fate does make sports of man.....the market fear the tapering off of easy money by the Feds and at one point, Soilbuild REIT dropped to just a mere 70 cents per share. It remained in the doldrum for many weeks despite the efforts by the stabilizing manager.

Lessons learnt:

1. Ensure presence of strong sponsor for future REIT IPO. SPH backed REIT is a good example. For soilbuild REIT, its sponsor disappear after getting it listed. 
2. Stay away from such IPO that is without cornerstone investors who have strong holding power.
3. It is a myth to think that Industrial REITs are super defensive in nature. This is not true. Healthcare REITs and Retail REITs are actually more defensive in nature. 

Another interesting point about Soilbuild is that its founder Lim Chap Huat actually make many millions listing then delisting and then repackaged his assets for listing. Mr Lim has subsequently went into the market mopping up millions of shares at around S$0.73 per unit. I guess he is the ultimate winner. 

Anyway, I took advantage of the market rally yesterday and say "Bye Bye" to my entire stakes in Soilbuild REIT. Will most probably redeployed the capital to other more defensive REITS. I wish Mr Lim and his Soilbuild empire all the very best.

Honeyed words by insurance agents- Beware!

Recently, metup with an Independent Financial Advisor ("IFA") and a tied agent from Manulife to buy life insurance critical illness policy and medical insurance for my new born. For critical illness life policy, the IFA came up with 4 products from 4 different insurance companies whereas the Manulife agent came up with only the Protector 20 plan. I compared the protection value, cash value and lifetime premiums and finally decided on the Vivolife policy from NTUC Income. The policy from NTUC Income is a balanced one in terms of protection and extremely high guaranteed cash value.

The Manulife agent was pretty upset. She persistently ring up to try to change my mind. Now, she mentioned that she has another better product called the Ultimate Protector series that can beat Vivolife and that Manulife has one of the best annual investment return out of all the insurance companies. Also, she told me that IFA also sold products that give them the highest commission and begin her pitch that IFA and tied agents are the same. Also she insisted another meetup face to face and did not want to send the soft copy of the proposal over. So, in the end, gave the agent another chance. Was almost swung by her sales pitch but due to my previous bad experience with insurance agents, my internal alarm rang non stop and I  told her I will need to take time to relook the detailed proposal.

Ultimately, I discovered that the Ultimate Protector policy from Manulife has very poor cash value upfront. The guaranteed portion is just too pathetic. If one can assume that the investment returns from Manulife is spectacular every year, then it will be unbeatable. I still prefer guaranteed portion. Also disullionised with the bad mouthing by one agent against another agent...it's pretty much a dog eat dog world it seems. The moral of the story is to be extremely skeptical when dealing with any insurance agents lest one become the ultimate fool.

Honey Honey Words.....Yummy!

REITS Correction in June'13

The sharp fall in prices of many Straits Times Index ("STI") Stocks was unnerving. REITS market value slided down on fears that interest rates will rise when Ferderal Reserve Chairman Bernake announced the winding down of money printing in future due to improvement in the US economy. I sold off close to 50% of my portfolio in order to preserve my capital and unrealized profits. 

Luckily, the slide in the STI was only temporary. Market regain most of its confidence and investors went back. REITS prices corrected to a more decent footing to reflect rising interest rate risk which presented excellent opportunities for one to re-allocate their portfolio. I also offloaded the Genting Perpetual Bonds which will devalue in face of rising interest rates and use the proceeds to invest in Suntec REITS which will complete it's Asset Enhancement initiative next year. This in turn will boost rental income and I am expecting at least a 20% capital appreciation.

Jewel @ Buangkok (North East District) Review

Name:Jewel at Buangkok 

Developer: White Haven Properties Pte Ltd (City Developments Limited)
Location:Buangkok Drive / Sengkang Central       
Land Tenure:99 years from 12 September 2012
Expected T.O.P: 13 June 2017
No of Blks: 6
No of Units: 616Levels:15/16/17Site
Site Area: 18,340.7sqm (197,419sqft)
Carpark lots: 616 lots for residents comprising of the following:

• Normal Lots – 610 Lots
• Family Lot – 1 Lot
• Electrical Car Lots – 3 Lots
• Washing Bays – 2 Lots

In addition:

• Handicap Lots – 7 Lots
• Visitor Bays – 10 Lots

Total 633 lots.

Review:
This is the much anticipated launch that is just a mere 3 minutes walk to Buangkok MRT. The Jewel at Buangkok is just opposite The Quartz condominium and besides the EC Esparina.


The completed Esparina EC just besides Jewels

Clubhouse

Dual Level Waterscape

Spa Cabin

Gardeners' Cabin

Pet's Lovers' Cabin

Gourmet Cabin

Adventurers' Cabin

Nature Cabin- Camping Ground!

Master Bedroom with balcony for premium 3 bedder 1195sqft

General Review:

The landscaping is just incredibly awesome for Jewel @ Buangkok. The main attraction is the unique dual-level waterscape comprising of panoply of pools and water features. Equally interesting is the Six Thematic Outdoor Cabins spread throughout the development.

Location wise, it is just a short 3 mins walk to the North East MRT Station of Buangkok which accounts for it's high pricing by CDL of around SS1,150psf on average. In terms of basic amenities, there is also a 24 hours NTUC supermarket, retail shops and food centre. Personally, I like Buangkok more than Seng Kang as it is not too congested. The many empty land around Buangkok MRT also means that those investors who dare to plunge in to get a unit will benefit in future. In Singapore, land is scarce and limited. Even if there are property market downturn, the land prices will eventually go back up. Interestingly, just 2 years back, no one thought that properties in the sub-urban areas will sell for over S$1,000psf....a simply unfathomable prospect in the eyes of mortal at that juncture.

Anyway, to make it affordable, City Development ("CDL") actually shrink the typical size of all the different bedrooms to ensure the units remain within the reach of the prospective buyers. For example, 3 bedroom sizes come in 2 main types of 81sqm (872sqft), 87 sqm (936sqft) and 100sqm (1,076sqft). For those who can afford S$1.25Mil, one would be able to get the bigger 3 bedroom premium at 1,195sqft (another 3 bedder premium at 1,152sqft). However, even then, this will only get you a unit at the low floors. That is how crazy CDL priced them. I highly recommend buyers to go for the smaller 1152sqft premium 3 bedder as the difference for the 1195sqft is they added in a balcony at the Masterbedroom.

Units Layout and fittings:

The architect of Jewel has designed it such that the living and dining areas are extremely spacious. This thus means smaller bedroom sizes. The Masterbedroom in the 3 bedder premium is a tad too small for my liking. Saying that, there are many people who prefers the extra space to be in the living and dining area. For fittings, a very special item given by CDL is the Hyflux Purified Water System to all units at Kitchen. The Purifier will be installed at the kitchen sink with a separate tap. Homogeneous tiles at Living and Dining area and laminated flooring for bedrooms.

Points to Note:

As mentioned previously, the landscape is awesome but that means that maintenance is going to very very expensive as warned by the property agent. The expect monthly maintenance fees for a normal 3 bedder is expected at be at least S$380 per month and S$400 over for the 3 bedroom premiums type. One can't have all the cake and eat it.

Overall, this CDL project look set to turn into a magnificent development. The prices slightly on the high side but then you get the MRT at your doorstep.