China has Sufficient Thorium Nuclear Fuel Deposit to Power Itself for 60,000 Years.

Interestingly, China has discovered vast deposits of Thorium in Bayan Obo mining complex in Inner Mongolia, a northern autonomous region, where estimates suggest that full extraction of these deposits could yield up to one million tonnes of thorium. This substantial reserve can fuel China for the next 60,000 years.

1.Benefit 1: More In Abundance Than Uranium 
The importance of thorium in the nuclear energy industry lies in its potential to be a more abundant and efficient substitute for uranium, potentially addressing energy needs in the long term. Thorium is three times as abundant as uranium and nearly as abundant as lead and gallium in the Earth's crust. The Thorium Energy Alliance estimates "there is enough thorium in the United States alone to power the country at its current energy level for over 1,000 years.

2.Benefit 2: Safer Than Uranium

Long-lived radioactive waste for thorium is just a fraction from nuclear plants using Uranium. In a molten-salt reactor, thorium is combined with lithium fluoride and heated to extreme temperatures of 1,400°C, where neutron bombardment initiates a chain reaction. This method is more efficient than conventional uranium reactors, generates significantly less nuclear waste, and minimizes the risk of catastrophic meltdowns

3.Thorium Nuclear Fission Fuel Just A Myth?

Nope, this is not a myth. China has already successfully proven the functionality of this concept. It has built the world's first thorium molten salt reactor (TMSR-LF1) in the Gobi Desert, achieving stable criticality in 2023 and reaching full power operation in 2024. While the reactor is a small one and only 2 Megawatt, it demonstrated the feasibility of using the less pollutive thorium to replace uranium as a nuclear fission fuel.

Parting Thoughts

The use of thorium should buy our human race sufficient time to achieve a breakthrough in the holy grail of nuclear fusion technology whereby atoms are fused together to generate energy and the waste generated are low-medium level radioactive materials relative to the current nuclear fission process. 

(Note: For those interested about uranium and thorium, can read more here.)

The Rise Of DeepSeek That Does Artificial Intelligence at a Fraction Of Traditional AI.

Wow, the China developer of DeepSeek managed to setup and train its latest generative Artificial Intelligence ("AI") model at only US$5.6Mil relative to ChatGPT's US$100Mil which is just a fraction of its setup cost. Just when some folks were wondering whether this is a fake claim, the other shock that comes out is that it is open-source and anyone can just look in and see for themselves. 

This startling relevation will bring about chaos in the global stock markets for this week. Looks like AI sytems can be designed using cheaper Graphic Processing Units ("GPUs"). This is certainly not a too happy relevation for Nvidia and its stock price may decline while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) GPUs may now be marketed as a serious and viable alternative to the faster GPUs from its rival Nvidia. Hopefully, the popular AI theme stocks do not decline too much else it may affect the overall global stocks markets. 

(Updated 28 Jan 2025: The bloodbath from DeepSeek threat wiped out US$1 trillion from worldwide Tech stocks with Nvidia valuation dropping by a whopping US$600 billion (-16.8%) overnight. Even SREITs with data centre focus theme such as Mapletree Industrial Trust , Keppel DC REIT and DigiCore REIT were not spared and saw a significant dip of -2.73%, -7.93% & - 6.03% respectively in a single day.) 

Tesla Breakthrough In Automated Full Self Driving With Use of Artificial Intelligence.

Tesla is set to release its latest version 12 of Full Self Driving ("FSD") technology using the revolutionary Artificial Intelligence ("AI") learning. According to Elon Musk, this will be released in another 2 weeks time (end November 2023 or early December 2023). The use of AI presents a paradigm shift in Tesla's approach to self driving technology which will rely on car cameras and AI learning. 

According to Elon Musk, FSD version 12 no longer rely on the traditional pre-defined code for routine driving decisions like stopping at signs or slowing down for speed bumps. Instead, it uses vast amounts of video data from Tesla vehicles worldwide to learn and adapt, which is an incredulous stark contrast to the 300,000 lines of C++ code in its predecessor.

I am not sure how good will be the released product as it was reported that Elon's vast optimism may still have some hiccups as during a live drive demonstration by Musk, he still had to intervene at one point to prevent his vehicle from running a red light. 

My personal overall sensing is that Elon Musk and Tesla are probably on their way to succeed in something that was once thought to be a virtually impossible feat. 

Sadly, it looks like my backup plan to become a Taxi/Grab Driver in event that I am retrenched maybe in jeopardy if Tesla really managed to resolve all kinks and leapfrog autonomous driving.     

Please see details from the below technology posts: 

1. How Tesla Is Using Artificial Intelligence to Create The Autonomous Cars Of The Future

2. Tesla's upcoming FSD V12 is two weeks away according to Musk

Starlink By Elon Musk For Satellite Internet Broadband Services Operational Soon- Possible Threat to Singtel, Starhub and Netlink Trust?

Elon Musk is planning to launch its SpaceX's Starlink services soon. Starlink is actually a satellite internet constellation being constructed by SpaceX providing satellite Internet access. The constellation will consist of thousands of mass-produced small satellites in low Earth orbit, working in combination with ground transceivers. An estimated investment of more than US$10 billion has been pumped into this decade old project from Elon Musk. This space internet broadband project actually went on track as per forecasted with various beta testing being done already. It is scheduled to launch soon in USA and Canada this year and to rapidly expand to attain global coverage of the entire world by 2021. I was rather surprised that Elon Musk managed to pull this off and they are in the midst of going live soon. 

Will it pose a threat to 5G technology and fibre optic network of Singtel, Starhub and Netlink Trust?

Firstly, the original market segment for Starlink seems to be more for rural areas. In big countries such as USA, the vast geographical area makes it almost impossible to lay fibre optic cable to connect every home. I do not think that there will be many take up  in Singapore even if it is given regulatory approval by the Singapore Government due to the fact that Singapore is a tiny country that is already very well connected by fibre optic and also upcoming planned 5G base stations setup from the telecommunication/internet cabling companies.

Secondly, the technology of satellite connection based on beta testing has speed of only 150Mbps and latency rate of 20ms to 40ms. With 5G network deployment using high frequency bandwidth, we can get up to 1Gbps and latency rate of 1ms. Hence competitive services such as direct fibre optic cable and upcoming 5G network services are superior relative to the connectivity services offered by Starlink.

Thirdly, the reported cost seems to be US$99 per month and a one time USD500 setup kit. SpaceX expects to generate US30 billion per annum from selling this internet services globally. In Singapore, the US$99 is a lot more expensive than what the main telecommunication companies, Singtel, Starhub and M1 are offering. Hence I think there is a lack of competitive advantages for such services in certain countries which are small and already built up extensive fibre optic cabling infrastructure.

Parting Thoughts
Satellite internet connection seems to be an upcoming technology ready for deployment. There are also other players like Amazon and OneWeb (went into bankruptcy but subsequently rescued by UK government and India Bharti Group). Elon Musk's Starlink seems to be leading ahead in the global deployment of thousands of satellites to beam high speed internet from anywhere in the world. My personal thoughts are that it should not pose a threat to Singtel. Starhub and Netlink Trust in our Singapore market due to the aforesaid mentioned 3 points. 

What are your thoughts?

Magical Extra 20% Discount For Polar Puffs And Cakes By Using Food Panda Hack.

While ordering dinner on Food Panda last weekend evening, I noticed that if you choose the "Pick-up" yourself option, there are a number of food and beverages shops in shopping malls offering a 20% discount. Generally, the 20% discount is just a marketing gimmick as the food and drinks pricing will still be higher or at most similar to the direct retail pricing at the shops. This is due to the cost of using Food Panda's technological platform and thus the F&B outlets have to contribute part of their earnings from sales of food and drinks as service fees.

Now, for the really super duper weird part: An abnormality (at least from my personal perspective) occurred for Polar Puffs and Cakes such that when one utilized the "Pickup" yourself option, the 20% discount is truly off the current outlet retail price of each snacks and cakes. For example, sugar roll of S$1.30 became S$1.04 after the 20% discount.  Why would anyone then buy direct at any outlet of Polar Puffs and Cakes? Everyone would simply just start punching into their mobile phone to order using the Pickup option in the Food Panda App which is way cheaper. 

I decided to do an experiment the very next day which led to another mind-boggling situation. This was what I did: I went down directly to the Polar Puffs and Cakes Outlet at the shopping mall nearest to my home to see for myself. 

At the counter, I asked the shop assistant serving the counter at Polar Puffs: "Auntie, I want buy 5 sugar rolls without sugar coating. Got promotion a not and how much in total ar?"

The Auntie shop assistant replied: "We here no promotion lah. Don't have discount. Total is S$6.50 for 5 sugar rolls.....each is S$1.30"

I then politely told the Auntie that I decided not to buy the sugar roll and bid my farewell. Next, I took out my mobile phone and dived into the Food Panda App and started to place order for 5 sugar rolls for picking up at the Polar Puffs and Cakes outlet that I just visited. The electronic checkout total pricing shows S$5.20 to be deducted with a huge 20% discount. 

After paying via my e-wallet, the Food Panda App told me to go pick up from the outlet in 10mins time. As I could not contain my excitement, I hurriedly walked to the end of the shopping mall and then U-turn back to the Polar Puffs and Cakes outlet within just 1 minute and saw the Auntie busy taking my new electronic order sent via Food Panda and packing 5 sugar rolls into a box. The Auntie was very surprised to see me so soon again and asked me: "You back liao ar? What do you want to order?"

I replied: "Auntie, I don't want to order. I came to collect my order placed via Food Panda wor. Got 20% discount leh....only S$5.20." The Auntie was shell-shocked and asked me to show her my mobile screen on the details of the order being placed and asked me why like that. 😀

So it seems that the Food Panda App special pricing off retail outlet price is not a glitch. It appears to be a strange loophole for one to buy directly at the outlet at a 20% discount albeit the shop is not running any promotion for its famous sugar rolls. Why would anyone then want to pay S$1.30 to buy a sugar roll when one can just use the Food Panda App? This is a strange product pricing paradox. 

Maybe someone in the marketing industry can help enlighten me on the apparent Food Panda hack for Polar Puffs and Cakes. Anyway, I am a loyal supporter of Polar Puffs and Cakes for many years....more than happy to buy my favourite sugar rolls at a discount....hopefully, they maintain this working partnership with Food Panda forever. Yeah!

COVID-19 Vaccine-The Good and Bad

A mixture of good and bad news came out recently from the COVID-19 vaccine development. US Moderna Inc came up with positive news that its vaccine during the phase 1 trial is producing neutralizing antibodies to the virus and appears safe with the exception of a few volunteers displaying side effect of flu symptoms after vaccination. Phase 2 trial will also try to find the best dosage for administration and will start soon in May'20 and Phase 3 trial on efficacy and safety using larger sample population will commence in July'20. This is good news for all, in particularly, the battered travel and hospitality sector. 

However, the Oxford vaccine in development in UK seems to have hit a wall. From the animal testing, all the monkeys vaccinated were eventually infected despite developing some antibodies to the virus. The slightly positive news is that it appears that vaccinated monkeys do not develop severe pneumonia as compared to the other control group without vaccination. So we have a partially effective (half-baked) vaccine that does help to reduce the severity of the virus but may not stop infection in human beings. Despite this, the UK human trial is still proceeding with 1,100 people with double the dosage compared to the vaccination given to the monkeys.  Hopefully, the higher dosage will work out to stop the virus from replicating.

Summarising, the US Moderna Inc vaccine seems to show great promise. Saying that, the human trials for Moderna may turned the other way in terms of whether it really works well. Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials will be the real deciding point on whether the pandemic can be ended. This will the key determinant on real economic recovery else we will have to go through more devastating circuit breakers akin lock-downs imposed by governments to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed by COVID-19. 

Malaysia To Launch Prototype of Flying Car

Picture denotes the Thunder Hawk  flying car of a cartoon series known as Mask

Malaysia has announced plans to build a flying car and launch a working prototype by end of the year using its own local technology. This is good news indeed. Earlier this month while I was in Malaysia for Lunar New Year, the trip from Yong Peng back to Singapore of typically 1.5hours ended up with 8.5 hours spent on the highway and Customs due to the severe traffic jam. With a flying car, this will beat the damn traffic jam. Militaries around the world should also be interested in this great product. I am sure the demand will be very high. 

Once the flying car is successfully launched, Malaysia will have a technological advantage in manufacturing with this know how. Hopefully, Malaysia will become richer with this new product. This will reduce the excuses that the current Malaysian Prime Minister, Mahathir has on hand such as to get "Rich" Singapore pay higher water charges to "Poor" Malaysia. Malaysia actually has lots of raw materials and oil and definitely so much richer than Singapore in terms of natural resources. Looking forward to the unveiling of the flying car prototype at year end.

World's First Super Battery Prototype Successfully Developed- Electric Car Revolution Coming Up and Sunset Industry for Oil and Gas Companies!

2018 has been an amazing year for the progress of new scientific breakthroughs. We live to witness the major leapfrog of another new battery technology during our life time since the development of the first lithium ion battery in 1980. Billions of dollars have been invested by many companies seeking to be the first to develop a super battery to overcome the current constraint of limited power storage in our traditional batteries. The solid state battery technology has been the long awaited break through in battery technology that is poised to solve 3 main obstacles hampering the use of electric car, namely, (i) making the range of electric car match the current petrol/diesel car from a single full tank, (ii) cutting down the recharging time of 8 hrs to less than 15 mins and (iii) inadequate safety of the use of current batteries which are prone to fire. Earlier this year, many experts believed that we are at least a decade away from refining the solid state battery technology. It is thus quite shocking when Magnis Resources (a company listed on ASX) announced that they have come up with the world's first working prototype of a solid state battery on 2nd Oct 2018. Mass production is expected to be deployed by 2nd quarter of 2019.   

There were many scientists who had initially poured scorn on the solid state battery theory as it defies the law of thermodynamics with regard to the law of conservation of energy. There are in fact other mysterious new scientific technology breakthrough such as the development of EM Drive propulsion system to power future spaceship for interstellar travel which violates the law of  Physics (Newtons's 3rd law of motion which states that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction). 

The successful unveiling of the solid state prototype also means that the solid state battery technology is commercially viable albeit no one can properly explain the theory behind the strange phenomenon. Such battery can also be used in our smart phones. Imagine long lasting power in your smart phones that can be used for up to 1 week eventually without recharging. Also, imagine being able to recharge your smart phones in less than 5 mins. 

What are  solid state batteries and how are they different from traditional batteries?

This is the latest battery technology that uses both solid electrodes and solid electrolytes, instead of the liquid or polymer electrolytes found in lithium ion batteries. Solid state batteries are believed to be capable of significantly higher energy density to current traditional battery. Solid state batteries are also able to be recharged at a super fast rate and expected to be longer cycle life. In addition, as compared to the flammable liquid electrolytes in traditional battery, a solid state battery uses materials such as glass or ceramics etc which are safer. 

Magnis Resources newly unveiled world's first working solid state battery prototype

As an example of the capabilities of this technology, the Magnis Resources C4V solid state battery will be capable of delivering a 70% increase in range for electric vehicles when compared to other conventional batteries, thus allowing an electric car with a current 400km range to be able to run 680km on the same single charge.  

Impact of  solid state battery technology on renewable energy development

The new solid state battery could be the "missing piece" in sustainable energy development. For too long, wind and solar energy generation are unreliable due to the inconsistency of wind or solar at all times of the day. The super batteries can be built into the smart power grid system to store excess electricity generated from such sources at a particular active time and then release the supply of energy at any time of its choosing. The expected tougher durability in terms of the re-use from repeated recharging of a solid state battery is also expected to bring cost down further.

Impact of new battery technological breakthrough on Oil & Gas Industry

With the ever evolution of new battery technology and development of sustainable renewable energy, the reliance on fossil fuel is finally broken and coming to an end. Oil and Gas companies certainly have to prepare for the inevitable downturn of the whole industry in the next 2 decades. I have no doubt that this will be a declining industry. OPEC and other oil producing countries should accelerate plans to restructure their economy from export of fossil fuel that is currently making up the main bulk of their economy and revenue. 

Parting thoughts

Overall, I am extremely excited by the latest announcement of a working solid state battery. With billions of dollars poured into R&D and many companies jumping into the enhancement and development of this battery technology, this will definitely improve renewable energy reliance and also enhance our lives with all the new products with inbuilt super batteries. Expect the prevalent adoption of electric cars worldwide and conversion of petrol station kiosks to electric recharging stations as well as more sustainable energy development. This may also turn out to be the missing key in our own salvation from the dire effects of global warming.

Upcoming 5G Network Technology and Imminent Threat to Netlink Trust Business

The faster than expected development of the 5G network caught me by surprise. Just last month (July’18), Singtel and Ericsson announced that they will be launching a 5G pilot network test by the fourth quarter of 2018 to support drone and self-driving car tests in the one-north district. Also, Optus (Singtel’s Australian subsidiary) and Globe (Singtel’s Philippine Associate Company) have announced plans for the rolling out of commercial 5G services next year. I have done up some technical readings and post it here on the 5G technology characteristics so as to analyze the potential implication on Netlink Trust, which is supposed to be the backbone of our Smart Nation initiative.

Technical Characteristics of 5G   

5G builds upon today’s 4G mobile network technology. It refers to fifth-generation mobile technology which is expected to open up industry and consumer applications with promise of super-fast wireless connection speeds and lesser latency (lag time). 5G higher connection speeds will be possible due to advances in current radio technologies, increased allocations of radio spectrum, and by using many more antenna sites or base stations than today’s networks. Each mobile antenna will thus serve a smaller area or cell.

The one major difference between a fixed fiber network and 5G mobile network is that the latter’s connection speed decreases as the number of users increases. This is due to the contention effect. If 5G network has successfully been deployed at Marina Bay Float, Singaporeans attending the National Day Parade who are surfing the internet to upload photos or watch video will find the less than satisfactory connection speed. All 5G mobile devices in a vicinity connect to the local base station and will always share its data capacity. This will not affect users using a fixed broadband network.

5G base stations will always need a backhaul to connect to the internet. This will likely be in the form of optical fiber network. Hence this could be further monetize by our current Broadband Network Operator, Netlink Trust. The problem is that while Netlink Trust can theoretically earn some money from this, the bigger issue will be the loss of monthly fixed line connection fees from customers of Singtel, Starhub, M1 and TPG, that will switch to the 5G network. I will elaborate more on this aspect in later paragraph on this scary scenario.

Will 5G Replace Cable Broadband?

Similar to Netlink Trust Singapore, Australia also have their own Company operating National Broadband Network (NBN). It is interesting to note that the Australian NBN CEO thinks that there will be damaging and intense competition from the up and coming 5G network technology. This is a stark contrast to a study done by the Media Asia Partners (commissioned by Netlink Trust Singapore) which gives the following reasons on why our NBN will not face any threat from 5G: 

(i)                   Slower speed of the wireless mobile network;

(ii)                 Latency issue- average time for pockets of data to travel between 2 points tend to be slower relative to fixed broadband network;

(iii)                Mobile networks suffer from network congestion and

(iv)                Data limit suppression by current telco- there is no unlimited data plans on offer in Singapore yet.

Lightning Speed Development of Latest 5G Technology

5G provides for speeds up to 20Gbps in theory. Current trials are still ongoing worldwide. But getting 1Gbps will not pose a challenge within the next 5 years or probably even faster. This will definitely rival fixed broadband network.

Latency issue for 5G has vastly improve to 1 millisecond relative to up to 20millisecond for 4G. This is amazing as it paves the way live TV programme streaming using a mobile wireless network.

Also once the 5G base stations deployment begin, this will eventually cover the entire country. In a small country like Singapore, this can definitely be achieved within 5 years. If we take into consideration the permission clearance to access private or commercial buildings, I reckon another 2-3 years on top of the 5 years for the network infrastructure to be widespread and ready. Singapore has always embraced new technologies.

Another point to add is that in Taiwan, there are already telcos offering unlimited data plans. Fixed Broadband operators such as Asian Pay TV have reported losing their broadband customers to mobile broadband. Such a development will definitely happen in Singapore with the widespread build up of the 5G infrastructure.  

5G Impact on Netlink Trust

I was very much surprised at the availability of a technology in the near term that pose a significant threat to Netlink Trust. Initially, I thought that such technology is at least a decade away from full deployment and mass market adoption. From my personal perspective, this is a major threat to Netlink Trust.

The issue of whether Netlink Trust will be commissioned to build up the 5G network or being left to individual telcos has not been addressed. Even if appointed, Netlink Trust will need to incur significant capital expenditure before it can monetize the new wireless network. This will lead to inevitable reduction in cashflow available for dividend pay out to shareholders.

The most likely scenario will be that telcos will be investing heavily in the 5G infrastructure. While not all subscribers will switch to wireless broadband, I envisage a strong take up rate once the infrastructure gets build up and 5G permeate through every part of the country. This will lead to loss of revenue and profitability despite perhaps some upsides from the backhaul support of 5G base stations.

As alluded to the above points, I am adopting a rather pessimistic and conservative outlook on the future of Netlink Trust in view of the upcoming pressure on its cashflow due to the competition from 5G. I will thus be paring down my shares in Netlink Trust and re-deploying the capital into other businesses.

Various articles are taking different standpoints with regard to 5G technology impact on fixed broadband network. Fellow investors, please feel free to help share your thoughts on the outlook of 5G on Netlink Trust.