US–Iran Ceasefire Or War: A Fragile Pause and What Comes Next.

The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a tense middle phase—not quite war, not quite peace. A ceasefire exists on paper, but clashes and economic pressure continue, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. At the centre: a proposed peace deal. Iran has put forward a multi-point plan, and the US has responded with tougher conditions. Tehran is now evaluating that response.

1. The Core Disagreement

The US wants: security first (reopen shipping, limit nuclear activity)

Iran wants: sanctions lifted first, then negotiations

That mismatch is why talks are slow and uncertain.

2. Most Likely Outcomes

I think that there are 4 likely scenarios here:

(i) Frozen conflict (most likely)

A shaky ceasefire holds, but tensions persist and shipping remains risky.

(ii) Partial deal (likely)

Both sides agree only on safe passage in Hormuz—without solving bigger issues. This will only materialise if Donald Trump got a sudden stroke from old age or eating too much McDonalds. 

(iii) Full deal (least likely)

A broader agreement with sanctions relief and security guarantees.

(iv) Escalation risk (almost present)

Talks collapse and conflict resumes.

Ships Stuck And Waiting to Clear the Straits

3. Flashpoint: US Escorting Ships

The US is now escorting vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz—a move which Iran views as provocative that is a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Possible Iranian Responses are as follow:

(i) Restraint: Allow passage to keep talks alive;

(ii) Harassment (most likely): Drones, patrol boats, limited attacks;

(iii) Diplomatic escalation: Claim ceasefire violation;

(iv) Direct clash (high risk and low probability): Engage U.S. naval forces;

Parting Thoughts

The most probable path forward, unfortunately, seems to be a prolonged conflict—where diplomacy continues, tensions simmer, and the risk of escalation never fully disappears. 

Parkway Life REIT DPU Shot Up 15%- But Beware!

Parkway Life REIT ("PLREIT") once again announced not just an increase in DPU but a stunning +15.1% for its first quarter distribution. Its last traded market price as at April 30, 2026 was S$4.02 per unit. Despite the fantastic results announcement, I do not think that it is worth it for new investors to foray into this PLREIT at this particular juncture. The recent announced DPU is S$0.0442 per unit for Q1 2026. Annualising this, the dividend yield for PLREIT will be 4.4% (forecast distribution is S$0.1768 per unit per annum). Many blue-chips SREITs such as Mapletree Industrial Trust, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust or Capitaland Ascendas are actually trading with a much more attractive 6% distribution yield and also way below their Net Asset Value ("NAV") per unit. On the other hand, PLREIT NAV per unit as at March 31, 2026 is only S$2.53 per unit which means that it is trading at a lofty +58.9% premium over its latest NAV per unit.

1. Price Trending Over Past 5 years- Always at a Premium Over its NAV.

Price Chart for PLREIT- Past 5 years 

The best entry price for PLREIT was actually when it was trading at the S$3.50- S$3.60 per unit range 2 years ago Also, PLREIT has been always trading at a premium over its NAV per unit due to it being in the medical sector where demand is deemed to be fairly resilient and that its management has always been delivering increase DPU over the years.

2. Does the Investment Thesis That DPU Is Resilient In Medical Sector True?

I will urge caution on this belief of many retail investors. Look at First REIT and you folks will know what I mean. Being in the medical sector does not mean that earnings will not be impacted. 

The only strong differentiating counter argument here is that PLREIT is way better than First REIT as Singapore has many top medical specialist relative to Indonesia as well as the always strong Singapore dollars compared to declining Rupiah. Nonetheless, it is still a fallacy as there is actually an overly concentration risk of main tenants for PLREIT. Main contributor of revenue is Parkway Hospitals Singapore Pte. Ltd. Again, I will point everyone to First REIT as well as to Elite UK REIT with regard to issues with having a business that has major tenant making up more than 50% of a REIT's revenue.

3. Escalation in Rental Income Increase of around 25% Expected to Start in FY2026.

From the previous S$150Mil AEI initiative at Mount Elizabeth for lease renewal exercise back in 2022, there will be an expected 25% rental uplift that will take effect from FY2026. Even if we take this into effect, the annualised yield will be around 5% which will still be significantly lower relative to the other blue-chip REITs as aforesaid mentioned. So, based on current market price, this is not very attractive.

Parting Thoughts

At the current price, I will be staying far away from PLREIT. I also find it strange that a number of retail investors view PLREIT as a "stable bond fund". PLREIT is never a bond fund. It is an equity instrument and thus comes with higher risk profile similar to other stock investments. Ok, that's all for my thoughts sharing for today, have a great week ahead! 

Iran Soften Stand To Revise Peace Offer-Donald Trump Chu Pattern Again!

Iran has soften and offered US a deal to open the Straits of Hormuz and talk about disposal of enriched uranium in a subsequent phase. Donald Trump, the King of USA, then angrily reject the offer as he wants the nuclear issue to be tackled upfront while he holds the US Naval blockage as a counter leverage that is hurting the economy of its government. The King has thus demanded Iran to revise their offer. 

I guess it is not too bad that Iran seems to have proposed this new offer relative to their previous stance of totally avoiding the previous peace talk. I think we are going to see the light at the end of the tunnel soon. Hang in there folks!

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust Disappointing Fall in DPU again for Q4 FY2025/26. Time to Say Goodbye to MPACT?

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust ("MPACT") posted a 2.6% decline in distribution per unit to S$0.019 for 4th quarter ended March 2026 on the back of a sharp drop of revenue by 5.5% (from S$222.9Mil to S$210.7Mil). As usual, the overseas properties of MPACT such as Festival Walk shopping mall continued to be affected by the loss of consumers to the new shopping haven in Shenzhen which is just less than 30mins of travelling  time via the Express Rail Link. Interestingly, recently, while my Hong Kong Boss (he's a business tycoon with wide business networking in China, HK & Australia) was on a business trip to Singapore, he remarked to me that everyone in Hong Kong now goes to Shenzhen frequently as it is extremely convenient. There are cheap SPA, foot massages, value for money food and grocery available in Shenzhen hence these adversely affect Hong Kong which is facing many empty retail shops with no tenants. Gone are the good old days of ever rising rental by Hong Kong landlords. My Hong Kong Boss next made another comment that once the Malaysia Johor Bharu & Singapore RTS is completed and fully functional, Singapore retail scene is going the way of Hong Kong, that is, it will also be severely affected by the surge in Singaporeans going for cheaper food and services across the causeway. 

Extracted Results Summary Q4 FY25/26

1. MPACT Q4 Results Ending March 2026.

Ok, back to MPACT most recent results announcement. The declining rental income from its overseas properties seem to have no bottom. I was initially optimistic that we have seen the trough of the decline in rental income given the many consecutive quarters and previously sky high negative rental reversion. 

If one refers to the screenshot below of all the main properties of MPACT, we can see that the revenue of Festival Walk HK continued to drop from S$49.9Mil to S$42.5Mil. Consequently, its NPI declined from S$37.7Mil to S$31.7Mil. The official reason stated for this decline is due to the sales of the Festival Walk office component.  

Without stripping off the effect of the disposal of its office component, we cannot really tell the current performance since we are comparing apple to orange. Hence Festival Walk HK is not exactly out of the woods yet until we have more clarity. 

Properties Breakdown Comparatives Q4 Current FY vs Q4 last FY

Key Financial Highlights For MPACT

2. Change in Investment Thesis on MPACT.

My thoughts are that my investment thesis on MPACT may need to change. I mean I have no doubt that its Singapore properties of Vivocity and Mapletree Business Park are still performing well. Nevertheless, the overseas properties continued to be a drag on its overall results and distributions to unit-holders. I am having some serious doubts on whether MPACT has further room to appreciate to catch up to its NAV per unit of around S$1.73 as at 31 March 2026. 

To elaborate further, the elephant in the room is whether its NAV is S$1.73 per unit or already close to its market price of S$1.40 per unit given the expected decline in NAV attributed to the poor performance of its overseas properties. The decline in NAV is not just in theory. If you look at 31 December 2025, its NAV per unit was S$1.78 per unit and now it has further eroded to S$1.73 per unit as at 31 March 2026. 

MPACT Vivocity

3. Parting Thoughts

I have put MPACT on my watchlist and to see whether its management will continue spinning off its non-performing overseas properties. While there seems to be improvement in Festival Walk tenant sales by 6% as reported, I am unsure whether the rental rates decline have stopped. I will probably wait for further clarity in the next quarter reporting before making a call on whether to just sell off all my MPACT units and recycle the funds to other investments. Are you folks still holding on to MPACT?

Indonesia Imitating Iran- Charging Ships Toll For Use of the Straits of Malacca.

Indonesia’s Finance Minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, recently "floated" the idea of charging ships transit fees through the Strait of Malacca as he was inspired by Iran's maneuverer off the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently, the Indonesia government wanted to try their hands on playing ruffians and imposing "protection money" to boost much needed treasury funds to cover their deficits. The Smart Aleck even tried to drag Singapore and Malaysia into the extortion ring by framing the idea as something that would require coordination with Singapore and Malaysia, rather than a unilateral Indonesian move. Any one can tell that Purbaya is just trying to share the political fallout from US, China, EU etc and to avoid Indonesia appearing as the sole wicked nation that is causing another disruption to global trade. 

1. Why the Proposal Caused Alarm

The Malacca Strait carries roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of global seaborne trade. Critical examples:

- China’s energy imports;

- Japan and South Korea’s shipping;

- Singapore’s port economy;-

- ASEAN trade

Any toll or restriction would likely:

(a) Raise shipping costs

(b) Increase insurance rates

(c) Trigger diplomatic backlash

(d) Potentially violate international maritime law

2. Regional Response

Our Singapore foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishna, jumped out immediately to oppose this stupid idea. Malaysia also showed little support and reinforced that the Strait is governed by UNCLOS transit passage rules, and not national tolling rights.

Additionally, Australia and major trading nations also quickly voiced their concern. Overall, Global markets viewed this suggestion as a destabilizing precedent.

3. Final Development

However, Jakarta subsequently quickly changed their mind after testing water and finding heavy criticism worldwide. They quickly clarified that Indonesia has no formal plan to impose tolls and remains committed to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which protects freedom of navigation in international straits. It is extremely disappointing that while the US-Iran war remains unresolved, Indonesia has tried to stir up more chaos in order to profit from it.

Capitaland Ascendas Rights Issuance Results- Not Too Bad.

Since I am mainly using another traditional trader securities custodian account of an international bank to hold Capitaland Ascendas REIT ("CLAR"), I am only able to see my rights issuance results this morning on 24 April 2026 (strange that in this day and time of Generative agentic AI, they still need 1 full day lead time to process for individual beneficial owners allocation after the main exercise completion on the morning of 23 April 2026.). Anyway, my total rights is 532 units and managed to get excess of 2,468 units. Total of 3,000 units. Guess not too bad given the overwhelming excess demand for CLAR excess units. Issuance price is S$2.35 per unit and closing market price as at 23 April 2026 is S$2.56 per unit. Hence every 1,000 units allocated gives immediate profit of S$210.  Consequently +S$630 of capital gain from this CLAR fund raising exercise. Guess, participating in rights issuance is better than buying Toto from Singapore Pool. My greatest Toto win after 3 years is only a miserable S$85 from a System 7 ticket (not to mention the few hundred dollars I "invested" into buying the Toto). 

So how did you folks fare for this CLAR rights issuance? Hopefully, you folks got what you targeted. Ok, that's all from me today. Have a great weekend ahead! 

Countdown to US-Iran Conflict Ended-Donald Trump Tried to Use Nuclear Code on Iran.

Amidst the never ending US-Iran war, a recent controversial allegation from ex-CIA analyst, Larry Johnson, has surfaced suggesting that Donald Trump had sought to use nuclear codes during the war and that this was stopped by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, who opposed the move. Not sure whether this is purposely leaked out fake news by US side to pressurise Iran into accepting a peace deal with the agreement to handover enriched Uranium. 

Anyway, Donald Trump has just extended the ceasefire deadline indefinitely. Trump further mentioned that this is to give Iran more time to come up with a revised peace proposal for the US to review. This is quite silly, given that Trump has threaten that he will resume bombing Iran and will not extend the ceasefire deadline. To be honest, I was surprised by Trump's move as he is quite egoistic so to extend ceasefire indefinitely is a major concession and good faith towards de-escalation of conflict. 

Nevertheless, grave danger still remain with the Straits of Hormuz closed and US naval blockage of Iranian ports. The flames of war may still be re-ignited instantly given Iran's view that nuclear enrichment is their sovereign rights that no one can take-away.