Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust Disappointing Fall in DPU again for Q4 FY2025/26. Time to Say Goodbye to MPACT?

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust ("MPACT") posted a 2.6% decline in distribution per unit to S$0.019 for 4th quarter ended March 2026 on the back of a sharp drop of revenue by 5.5% (from S$222.9Mil to S$210.7Mil). As usual, the overseas properties of MPACT such as Festival Walk shopping mall continued to be affected by the loss of consumers to the new shopping haven in Shenzhen which is just less than 30mins of travelling  time via the Express Rail Link. Interestingly, recently, while my Hong Kong Boss (he's a business tycoon with wide business networking in China, HK & Australia) was on a business trip to Singapore, he remarked to me that everyone in Hong Kong now goes to Shenzhen frequently as it is extremely convenient. There are cheap SPA, foot massages, value for money food and grocery available in Shenzhen hence these adversely affect Hong Kong which is facing many empty retail shops with no tenants. Gone are the good old days of ever rising rental by Hong Kong landlords. My Hong Kong Boss next made another comment that once the Malaysia Johor Bharu & Singapore RTS is completed and fully functional, Singapore retail scene is going the way of Hong Kong, that is, it will also be severely affected by the surge in Singaporeans going for cheaper food and services across the causeway. 

Extracted Results Summary Q4 FY25/26

1. MPACT Q4 Results Ending March 2026.

Ok, back to MPACT most recent results announcement. The declining rental income from its overseas properties seem to have no bottom. I was initially optimistic that we have seen the trough of the decline in rental income given the many consecutive quarters and previously sky high negative rental reversion. 

If one refers to the screenshot below of all the main properties of MPACT, we can see that the revenue of Festival Walk HK continued to drop from S$49.9Mil to S$42.5Mil. Consequently, its NPI declined from S$37.7Mil to S$31.7Mil. The official reason stated for this decline is due to the sales of the Festival Walk office component.  

Without stripping off the effect of the disposal of its office component, we cannot really tell the current performance since we are comparing apple to orange. Hence Festival Walk HK is not exactly out of the woods yet until we have more clarity. 

Properties Breakdown Comparatives Q4 Current FY vs Q4 last FY

Key Financial Highlights For MPACT

2. Change in Investment Thesis on MPACT.

My thoughts are that my investment thesis on MPACT may need to change. I mean I have no doubt that its Singapore properties of Vivocity and Mapletree Business Park are still performing well. Nevertheless, the overseas properties continued to be a drag on its overall results and distributions to unit-holders. I am having some serious doubts on whether MPACT has further room to appreciate to catch up to its NAV per unit of around S$1.73 as at 31 March 2026. 

To elaborate further, the elephant in the room is whether its NAV is S$1.73 per unit or already close to its market price of S$1.40 per unit given the expected decline in NAV attributed to the poor performance of its overseas properties. The decline in NAV is not just in theory. If you look at 31 December 2025, its NAV per unit was S$1.78 per unit and now it has further eroded to S$1.73 per unit as at 31 March 2026. 

MPACT Vivocity

3. Parting Thoughts

I have put MPACT on my watchlist and to see whether its management will continue spinning off its non-performing overseas properties. While there seems to be improvement in Festival Walk tenant sales by 6% as reported, I am unsure whether the rental rates decline have stopped. I will probably wait for further clarity in the next quarter reporting before making a call on whether to just sell off all my MPACT units and recycle the funds to other investments. Are you folks still holding on to MPACT?

Indonesia Imitating Iran- Charging Ships Toll For Use of the Straits of Malacca.

Indonesia’s Finance Minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, recently "floated" the idea of charging ships transit fees through the Strait of Malacca as he was inspired by Iran's maneuverer off the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently, the Indonesia government wanted to try their hands on playing ruffians and imposing "protection money" to boost much needed treasury funds to cover their deficits. The Smart Aleck even tried to drag Singapore and Malaysia into the extortion ring by framing the idea as something that would require coordination with Singapore and Malaysia, rather than a unilateral Indonesian move. Any one can tell that Purbaya is just trying to share the political fallout from US, China, EU etc and to avoid Indonesia appearing as the sole wicked nation that is causing another disruption to global trade. 

1. Why the Proposal Caused Alarm

The Malacca Strait carries roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of global seaborne trade. Critical examples:

- China’s energy imports;

- Japan and South Korea’s shipping;

- Singapore’s port economy;-

- ASEAN trade

Any toll or restriction would likely:

(a) Raise shipping costs

(b) Increase insurance rates

(c) Trigger diplomatic backlash

(d) Potentially violate international maritime law

2. Regional Response

Our Singapore foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishna, jumped out immediately to oppose this stupid idea. Malaysia also showed little support and reinforced that the Strait is governed by UNCLOS transit passage rules, and not national tolling rights.

Additionally, Australia and major trading nations also quickly voiced their concern. Overall, Global markets viewed this suggestion as a destabilizing precedent.

3. Final Development

However, Jakarta subsequently quickly changed their mind after testing water and finding heavy criticism worldwide. They quickly clarified that Indonesia has no formal plan to impose tolls and remains committed to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which protects freedom of navigation in international straits. It is extremely disappointing that while the US-Iran war remains unresolved, Indonesia has tried to stir up more chaos in order to profit from it.

Capitaland Ascendas Rights Issuance Results- Not Too Bad.

Since I am mainly using another traditional trader securities custodian account of an international bank to hold Capitaland Ascendas REIT ("CLAR"), I am only able to see my rights issuance results this morning on 24 April 2026 (strange that in this day and time of Generative agentic AI, they still need 1 full day lead time to process for individual beneficial owners allocation after the main exercise completion on the morning of 23 April 2026.). Anyway, my total rights is 532 units and managed to get excess of 2,468 units. Total of 3,000 units. Guess not too bad given the overwhelming excess demand for CLAR excess units. Issuance price is S$2.35 per unit and closing market price as at 23 April 2026 is S$2.56 per unit. Hence every 1,000 units allocated gives immediate profit of S$210.  Consequently +S$630 of capital gain from this CLAR fund raising exercise. Guess, participating in rights issuance is better than buying Toto from Singapore Pool. My greatest Toto win after 3 years is only a miserable S$85 from a System 7 ticket (not to mention the few hundred dollars I "invested" into buying the Toto). 

So how did you folks fare for this CLAR rights issuance? Hopefully, you folks got what you targeted. Ok, that's all from me today. Have a great weekend ahead! 

Countdown to US-Iran Conflict Ended-Donald Trump Tried to Use Nuclear Code on Iran.

Amidst the never ending US-Iran war, a recent controversial allegation from ex-CIA analyst, Larry Johnson, has surfaced suggesting that Donald Trump had sought to use nuclear codes during the war and that this was stopped by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, who opposed the move. Not sure whether this is purposely leaked out fake news by US side to pressurise Iran into accepting a peace deal with the agreement to handover enriched Uranium. 

Anyway, Donald Trump has just extended the ceasefire deadline indefinitely. Trump further mentioned that this is to give Iran more time to come up with a revised peace proposal for the US to review. This is quite silly, given that Trump has threaten that he will resume bombing Iran and will not extend the ceasefire deadline. To be honest, I was surprised by Trump's move as he is quite egoistic so to extend ceasefire indefinitely is a major concession and good faith towards de-escalation of conflict. 

Nevertheless, grave danger still remain with the Straits of Hormuz closed and US naval blockage of Iranian ports. The flames of war may still be re-ignited instantly given Iran's view that nuclear enrichment is their sovereign rights that no one can take-away. 

The Shocking Announcement by Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust To Acquire Paragon From Cuscaden Peak.

I am shell shocked by the announcement from Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ("CICT") that it will be acquiring Paragon from Cuscaden Peak. As a former unit-holder of SPH REIT and later on the renamed Paragon REIT, I vividly recalled a year ago, the Cuscaden Group folks said that Paragon need S$500Mil to S$600Mil for a major facelift and refurbishment to fight off the intense competition at Orchard Road. Henceforth, there will be a huge loss of income for all unit-holders of Paragon REIT for up to 4 years during this major facelift. The best option recommended was a privatisation then with Paragon valued at S$2.9 billion. In less than 1 year after Cuscaden taken Paragon REIT private, they have suddenly decided not to go ahead with the facelift but instead chose to sell Paragon to CICT for S$3.9 billion. Personally, I thought that all ex-Paragon retail unitholders have been played out by Cuscaden Group. Interestingly, Cuscaden Group is made up of 3 major corporate shareholders who are, HPL Hotel (lead by the famous Mr Ong Beng Seng), Mapletree and lastly, Capitaland itself which is affiliated to CICT.

Extract of Announcement by CICT on 20 April 2026

1. Screwing Unit-holders of Paragon REIT

To put it bluntly based on my personal thoughts, the privatisation move made to "market and influence" Paragon Unit-holders last year was nothing more than a show with the grand purpose to remove the numerous unit-holders so that a restructuring of the Paragon Property can be completed in order to sell it off. Under Paragon REIT, Paragon is just a 99 year leasehold whereby the free-hold title was being withheld by the then Singapore Press Holdings. By taking Paragon REIT private, Cuscaden can then proceed to merge it back into a wholesome freehold investment property for spinning off at a large profit to other potential buyers.  

Unfortunately for retail investors, everything was done legally. The "privatisation" was an option that more than 75% of unit-holders agreed to during the EGM....it was not at gun-point. Ex-Paragon Unit-holders do not have access to other information or possible better business alternatives at that juncture. 

Additionally, the Cuscaden folks, would simply argue that after this move was made, Capitaland folks then suddenly have an "Eureka" moment that its CICT maybe can buy over a freehold Paragon that leads to a win-win situation for both Cuscaden and Capitaland. Perfect!  

2. Screwing Unit-holders of CICT

Tragically for CICT retail unit-holders, they cannot feel the victory of scoring a major goal in acquiring a freehold Paragon with the very much coveted Medical Suites tenants and its stream of very resilient rental income. There is a huge price tag of S$3.9 billion and worse still, CICT unit-holders are unable to participate in any preferential rights issuance as the management of CICT decided to go with a private placement of S$600Mil (now upsized to S$750Mil due to strong institutional demand) at a discounted price of S$2.30 per unit (market price S$2.47 per unit as of 22 April 2026, 4pm) to private institutions to fill up the fund raising gap required to complete the deal.

In addition, there maybe a need for a 4 years facelift that may cost an additional S$500Mil to S$600Mil as per the management of Cuscaden Group (making up of veterans in real estate HPL, Mapletree and Capitaland). CICT unit-holders may have to bear the execution risk in such an event. 

Nevertheless, on a personal front, I have serious doubt that CICT will want to spend another half a billion CAPEX for such asset enhancement. 

3. Parting Thoughts

From an investment perspective, I will not be investing in CICT. Personally, I do not like the office component present in CICT as my preference is more on a retail concentrated REIT. CICT market price is also trading at 1.17 times its NAV of S$2.11 per unit in April 2026 pro-forma which is overvalued. As a matter of fact, there are better opportunities out there. 

Why Donald Trump Will Cut Down US Military Spending To Reduce US Budget Deficit.

The Government of the United States of America is technically bankrupt. For more than 2 decades, the US deficit has been getting from bad to worse. For illustrative, look at the recent 5 years (2021-2025) whereby US has been running a ballooning budget deficit of US$1.38 trillion to US$2.77 trillion. For 2026, Donald Trump is expected to create an all time high (since COVID) deficit of over US$2 trillion with the US war “adventure" in Iran- this will be a whopping  12% of GDP. The failure and upcoming refund of the illegal import tariffs is only going to worsen the deficit. Its heavy spending on healthcare (Medicare and Medicaid) as well as social security by being a welfare state are placing huge burden on its public finance. 

Donald Trump To Cut Down US Military Presence in Europe and Asia

Already, we are seeing Trump using the excuse of the Iran War and no assistance from its European allies to “re-evaluate” its military assets deployed in Europe. I believe US will gradually reduce the number of US overseas military bases as well as its overseas military personnel to reduce unsustainable military spending so as to rein in the deficit. While US is still a powerful nation, it is no longer a “super power” like it used to be immediately post World War 2.  

Donald Trump has also succeed in isolating America from its allies by pursuing (i) import tariffs (that economics 101 lesson has clearly stated the negative repercussion) against all nations and (ii) withdrawal of military resources from allied nations to prioritise fighting the war in Iran. 

Parting Thoughts

The MAGA movement led by Trump seems to be doing more harm than good to US and as a matter of fact, it is hastening the US decline as a global super power. We are now starting to see the decline of the US dollars starting with the cracks appearing in the US petrol dollar regime. 

Passive Income Personal Updates and 1 More Week Of World Peace Countdown.

Based as at April 15, 2026 announcement- Excluding Endowus & Margin Financing Cost

Looks like for upcoming Q2 2026, the dividends flow from my stock portfolios will be low again. The highest peak for dividends pay date for my portfolios are usually in the month of March and September. With the US Iran ceasefire negotiation still going on, I truly hope that it will at least get another 2 weeks to 1 month extension even if the 2nd round of peace talk failed to come to an agreement. My target of achieving S$1.3Mil gross investment at the end of 2026 seems to be in jeopardy. 

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Diversification and Bonds

For the current stock market crisis triggered by the blockage of oil supply at the Straits of Hormuz, I guess I was lucky to have suffered only a slight decline in portfolio valuation This was mainly due to the following:

1. Focused more on Singapore and Hong Kong listed equities with only very tiny exposure to US equities which are way too overvalued in my personal opinion;

2. Diversification is important. I am currently holding onto around 25 equity counters and numerous unit trusts. Unit Trusts are important for diversification and reduces the incidences of going down to zero value should any stock in it faced total business collapse and

3. Having bonds inside investment portfolio does help reduces volatility. While this is basic common sense, retail investors like myself often struggle to buy bond directly as the minimum size to hold is often large and there will be insufficient diversification to avoid concentrated default risk.  A bond fund thus solve this problem. I have been investing in Unit Trust funds under the Endowus platform.

Parting Thoughts

Let's enjoy the peace and quiet for another week before the deadline for US-Iran ceasefire expire and see whether Donald Trump and Iran will extend it further. While the expectation gaps between the 2 sides are still enormous, there are numerous signs that both wanted to end the conflict and find some common ground.