Donald Trump To Restart Attacks on Iran- Winter Is Coming!

Hi folks, Winter is coming! If you thought that your week was chaotic, wait until you see what just dropped in the Persian Gulf over the few days. Donald Trump and his buddy Netanyahu will soon be re-attacking Iran. Looks like oil supply from Middle East will be cut off for a very long time as Iran will be continuing with their blockage of the Straits of Hormuz. With oil availability tight despite US, Canada, Venezula, Russia etc ramping up oil production for exports and China curbing their oil consumption, it has been reported that prices will remain high and even rocketed. 

The Immediate Threat: Geopolitical Shortage (Days to Weeks) is what happens if Trump acts on his threat of another strike.

The Hormuz Chokepoint is causing over 14 million barrels per day of oil production to be shut in or stranded due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Because nearly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil transits this narrow channel, a renewed U.S. strike would likely cement this blockade through Q3 2026.

Global oil inventories are currently already being drawn down at a staggering, historic pace of roughly 4 million to 8.5 million barrels per day. Even with coordinated Emergency Stock Releases from the IEA, these storage reserves can only act as a buffer for a few months.  Refinery Starvation: Refineries outside the Middle East (particularly in Asia, which buys 75% of Gulf oil) are already slashing operations because they cannot source the specific types of crude they need. A renewed strike will immediately exacerbate the shortage of middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel, causing localized fuel rationing and skyrocketing pump prices well past $4.00 a gallon in the U.S. 

The Expected Shortage Timeline

So yes, we are already in a structural shortage covered by emergency reserves. If the ceasefire permanently collapses, those emergency buffers will rapidly deplete, threatening severe physical supply crunches for oil-importing nations very soon in another 2-3mths.Yes, this is how dire our current situation has become.

Parting Thoughts and REITs/Bonds Being Whacked Again

Sadly, my SREITs have been badly battered by the stock market this week due to the fear of inflation leading to extreme interest rate hikes that will inevitably affect their net profits. Bond funds also find their valuation being hammered from expectation of a higher interest rate environment. Haiz, nothing is safe it seems these days. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Trump is only bluffing about renewed attacks on Iran. The stubborn old man has brought much grief to the world economies.

United Hampshire US REIT Amazing Q1 2026 Results- Distribution Yield Now Around 9% Per Annum.

United Hampshire US REIT ("UHREIT") reported a strong 1Q 2026, with distributable income rising 10.0% year-on-year to US$6.9 million, driven by higher rents, active leasing and contributions from two newly acquired grocery-anchored properties. Gross revenue increased 8.7% to US$19.7 million, while net property income climbed 12.7% to US$13.2 million. Using FY2025 Distribution Per Unit (DPU) of 4.39 US cents and closing Unit Price (12 May 2026) of US$0.515 per unit, this represents a previous distribution Yield of 8.5%. Since Dover is acquired in 2nd half 2025, a high level normalisation should give about a at least 5% increase for DPU in 2026, that is around an incredulous 9% distribution yield! 

1. Recap of New Properties Driving Increase in Distribution.

UHREIT sold Albany Supermarket for US$23.8 million back in January 2025. Thereafter, it has reinvested those proceeds into higher-yielding investment properties along with debt to supplement the these acquisitions:

1(i) Dover Marketplace-Acquired on 1 August 2025.

Purchase price: US$16.4 million

Funding source: Fully funded by proceeds from the divestment of Albany Supermarket

1(ii) Wallingford Fair Shopping Center- Acquired on 22 January 2026.

Purchase price: US$21.4 million

Funding source: Partially funded by proceeds from the Albany Supermarket divestment, internal cash, and external borrowings.

2. Financial Highlights for Q1 2026

Portfolio fundamentals remained resilient. The grocery and necessity portfolio maintained 97.7% occupancy, weighted average lease expiry extended to 8.0 years, and tenant retention stayed high at 90%. Only 2.0% of leases are due for renewal in 2026, while self-storage occupancy improved to 89.2%.

The balance sheet remains stable, with aggregate leverage at 40.3%, a lower average borrowing cost of 4.91%, and no refinancing requirements until February 2028.

Final Add On

UHREIT Management remains positive on the outlook, citing resilient demand for grocery-anchored retail, limited new supply, and opportunities for further acquisitions and asset enhancements. The 9% distribution yield for 2026 and the high potential for capital appreciation made UHREIT an attractive investment. Personally, given the current good results (finally turn-around after declining financials for past few years), I would have invested additional funds into UHREIT if not for my current holdings which already made up 10% of my total portfolios which represented an extremely high concentration risk.  

Iran Thinks It Has Upper Hand Against Donald Trump Over US-Iran War- Trump Vomiting Blood.

Iran has responded to US latest proposal to stop the war and Donald Trump is either foaming from his mouth or vomiting blood after reading through it. In my previous May 4, 2026 post on the US-Iran war (US–Iran Ceasefire Or War: A Fragile Pause and What Comes Next ), I have expressed my thoughts that this will turn out to be a long protracted conflict that will never have a resolution. 

1. Brave Iranians Defy US and Bets That Donald Trump Will Not Be Able to Nuke Them

It is strange that the Iranian government is very confident that Donald Trump will never dare to use the nuclear bomb against Iran. Hence they have effectively dug in on their position for US to remove blockade first and to accept that Iranians will control the Straits of Hormuz going forward.

In life, one learns that being too extreme and over-confident may often resulted in a wrong prediction. Crazy Trump may just do what everyone thought impossible.

2, Donald Trump Never Expect A Quick War To Go Totally Wrong.

Bolden by his Venezuela kidnapping of its hostile President and working with a friendlier government, Trump is feeling invincible. Trump probably also think that an attack on Iran will also further boost his legacy by being the US President willing to deal with the Iran uranium problem.

3. Donald Cursing Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel For Dragging US Into War With Exaggerated Outcome.

Most analysts are certain that Benjamin Netanyahu has goaded Donald into his wish list for decades to deal Iran with a blow that will handicap it. He must have told Trump that now is the best time to bomb Iran to trigger a regime change. Netanyahu also further stroked Trump's ego by praising Trump's kidnapping of the president of Venezuela with minimum resources.  

Parting Thoughts

I think that the AI bubble will probably burst first rather than seeing any true peace deal materialising. The Straits of Hormuz will also re-open soon but subject to paying of extortion money to Iran. 

SG Government Finally Revised Executive Condo Purchase Rules- Just Do Away with EC Scheme.

I read in absolute amazement at the devastating new property measures released by the Singapore Government with regard to changes in conditions for buying an Executive Condo (“EC”) in Singapore. These changes will apply to government land sales from May 8, 2026 which means that it will occur somewhere in late 2027 or early 2028 given the requirement for developers to only be able sell EC 15 months after successful land bid. Many private developers and 2nd time HDB upgraders are probably cursing and swearing at the upcoming changes. 

1. Latest Changes Summarised

So for couple who decided to apply for EC and getting married soon at age 28, waiting for TOP takes around 2 years while the new Minimum Occupation Period (“MOP”) thereafter is 10 years will mean a long waiting time to flip EC of 12 years, that is age 40 already. This will definitely address the current unhealthy trend of Singaporean couples using this as a mean to get rich via property flipping. 

The increased allocation from 70% to 90% reservation for 1st time buyer will also reduce the get rich 2nd time lottery for HDB upgraders who already benefitted from the Singapore get rich via HDB lottery system in the 1st round and now asking for 2nd bite of the cherry. Additionally, this will ensure more 1st time buyers benefit from owning their first property.

2. My Personal Take- Good Measures To Control Unsustainable Rise in EC Prices

Overall, I think this is good as developers will now be very worried about selling off all units in time lest they get into trouble with the 5 years sales penalty if they are still unable to market the units off. Developers will thus be more prudent in their EC bid.

3. EC Scheme Should be Removed.

Don’t flame me but I am not exactly a fan of the current EC scheme. Our HDB government agency has lost track of its original purpose post independence to help all Singaporeans own affordable housing for a roof over their heads. Building EC takes away precious land now used to build tennis court, swimming pool & landscaping which could be used to build an extra stack of BTO. Why should all tax payers be paying for folks who want to live in luxury property at the expense of the lower income group who are more in need of subsidies?

Hence, there should just be (i) BTO and (ii) private property class in Singapore. HDB housing is for Singaporeans to live in and not for flipping upon MOP. Those who wants to speculate or invest can just go directly to the private property market. 

Parting Thoughts

Personally, I think that these new measures are long overdue and bring EC in line with the BTO Plus and Prime area programmes of 10 years MOP. For too long, many Singaporeans have been treating an EC as a mean to get free government handout in the form of subsided land rates and special CPF grant of up to S$30K. Overall, many EC flippers simply just sell away after the previous 5 years MOP rule and walk away with half a million dollars of profit or even more to upgrade to private condo or to buy a landed home without any effort. A home is primarily for living in and not for speculation. I hope that this measure will also help moderate EC prices to benefit future generation and also spur more people to be more entrepreneurial by starting their own businesses to boost the economy instead of just lying flat and waiting for money to drop down via flipping of their EC for sure-win lottery gains. 

Sold Off Kimly Limited To Take Advantage of DBS Analyst Report Published in May 2026 with Target Price of S$0.52 Per Share.

Hi Folks, today is not too bad a day. While working in office, I saw a notification from my Tiger Brokers App with regard to a sudden surge in share price of Kimly Ltd rising to as high as S$0.430 per share in the afternoon today (May 7, 2026). A quick check on SGX announcement showed nothing much happening to its business in May 2026. The biggest catalyst seems to be a new DBS research report released today that initiated coverage with a “BUY” call and a target price of S$0.52 per share.

1. DBS Analyst Report on May 7, 2026

The report highlighted the following on Kimly Ltd:

(i) strong net cash position,

(ii) stable coffeeshop cash flow,

(iii) potential industry consolidation,

(iv) recurring dividends and 

(v) gradual outlet expansion/acquisition.

Medium size counters often faced poor liquidity trading issue and thus exposes Kimly Ltd to the sudden interest and spike in demand upon the release of the DBS Analyst report.

2. Selling off Most of my Kimly Ltd Stakes While Retaining Some For Further Long Term Appreciation

I am letting go part of my Kimly stakes from the sudden surge in price for Kimly Ltd to take advantage of this opportunity for re-deployment. Kimly was at S$0.395 per share as at yesterday (May 6, 2026). While DBS analyst put up an optimistic targeted price of S$0.52 per share for Kimly, I am locking in an immediate realisation of the 30% capital appreciation at S$0.42 per share and have sold off 27,800 shares today while retaining another 20,000 shares for the long term.  

Parting Thoughts

Will wait a few more days to study the current market on which other potential stock to buy with the realised funds from my investment in Kimly Ltd last year (May 2025). I guess it is not too bad to be making a 30% capital gain in less than 1 year of investment which is 6 years worth of dividends assuming 5% dividend yield per annum. 

Ok Folks, that's all from me today....have a great week ahead! 

End of Project Freedom In Less Than A Day by Donald Trump and US.

This is really incredulous. Donald Trump's Project Freedom using US War ships to escort ships out of the Straits of Hormuz ended in less than one day after its announcement. The missile attacks on US Warships and commercial ships moving through the Straits of Hormuz appear to have led to continued high risks of severe damage and potential loss of lives. In a face saving moment, Donald Trump has paused the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, by asserting “great progress” is being made towards a “complete and final agreement with the representatives of Iran”. So the operation will be halted for a "short period" to see whether a final agreement materialise.

Poor UAE is the greatest victim impacted by Donald Trump's "Project Freedom". The oil port and other facilities of UAE got attacked by missiles and drones fired by Iran as retaliation against Project Freedom. 

US–Iran Ceasefire Or War: A Fragile Pause and What Comes Next.

The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a tense middle phase—not quite war, not quite peace. A ceasefire exists on paper, but clashes and economic pressure continue, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. At the centre: a proposed peace deal. Iran has put forward a multi-point plan, and the US has responded with tougher conditions. Tehran is now evaluating that response.

1. The Core Disagreement

The US wants: security first (reopen shipping, limit nuclear activity)

Iran wants: sanctions lifted first, then negotiations

That mismatch is why talks are slow and uncertain.

2. Most Likely Outcomes

I think that there are 4 likely scenarios here:

(i) Frozen conflict (most likely)

A shaky ceasefire holds, but tensions persist and shipping remains risky.

(ii) Partial deal (likely)

Both sides agree only on safe passage in Hormuz—without solving bigger issues. This will only materialise if Donald Trump got a sudden stroke from old age or eating too much McDonalds. 

(iii) Full deal (least likely)

A broader agreement with sanctions relief and security guarantees.

(iv) Escalation risk (almost present)

Talks collapse and conflict resumes.

Ships Stuck And Waiting to Clear the Straits

3. Flashpoint: US Escorting Ships

The US is now escorting vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz—a move which Iran views as provocative that is a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Possible Iranian Responses are as follow:

(i) Restraint: Allow passage to keep talks alive;

(ii) Harassment (most likely): Drones, patrol boats, limited attacks;

(iii) Diplomatic escalation: Claim ceasefire violation;

(iv) Direct clash (high risk and low probability): Engage U.S. naval forces;

Parting Thoughts

The most probable path forward, unfortunately, seems to be a prolonged conflict—where diplomacy continues, tensions simmer, and the risk of escalation never fully disappears.