Keppel Ltd Overvalued After Recent Rally and Confusing Final Dividends Reported In Media?

Keppel Ltd is my current top performing holdings with a return of 104% after the recent strong rally in share price. Previously, a number of social media folks were very skeptical of its new strategy to focus on developing its recurring income business. Also many condemned the high leverage employed by Keppel Ltd. Finally, this year turned up extremely well for Keppel Ltd. I attribute it mainly to the "Piyush" effect...haha. Good job overall by the Senior Management team of Keppel Ltd! It is good that the market has finally acknowledged the transformation by Keppel Ltd into an asset light fund management model with more stable recurring income. I have sold off around 25% of my holdings to lock in part of the capital gain. Do I think that Keppel Ltd still a good buy at this juncture? I will address this in the final part of my post. For now, I have a whinge against the dividend announcement that seems a bit confusing and will talk about this issue first.

1. Final Dividends Is S$0.47?

The ambiguous dividends totality in most mdedia is further compounded by the Straits Time and Business Times that state that Keppel Ltd has declared a "final dividend" of S$0.47 per share. So is this referring to the overall total dividends for FY2025 or the 2nd half FINAL dividend tranche?

Extract from Business Times

As it turns out, the news media have been rather loose in their reporting these days. S$0.47 per share should not be crafted as "Final Dividend". Rather, I think the correct wording should be "TOTAL dividend" for FY2025. This is because S$0.47 per share of "final" dividends reported by the Straits Times and Business Times actually comprises of an interim cash dividend of S$0.15 per share that was already paid out in August 2025- we thus have no choice but to deep dive into the announcements by Keppel Ltd.

Extract from Keppel Ltd Full Year Presentation Deck

As seen above from Keppel's presentation deck, the "Final" dividends is actually only S$0.19 per share and not S$0.47 per share. Hence total normalised dividends pay out rate is only S$0.34 per share (interim S$0.15+ final S$0.19). Also, market price of Keppel Ltd is S$12.86 per share as at the close of trading of 16 February 2026 (Monday). This translates to a normalised annual dividend yield of 2.6%. This is actually an extremely low yield without the special dividends. 

2. Special Dividends Clarification

Also, the main stream media has been rather ambiguous on the nature of the S$0.13 per share of "special" dividends. As per above extract from Keppel's presentation deck, the S$0.13 is made up of 2 components:

(i) Cash dividend of S$0.02 per share and

(ii) Dividend in-Specie of 1 KREIT unit for every 9 Keppel shares held which is equivalent to S$0.11 per share. This valuation is based on Keppel REIT's closing price of S$0.98 per unit on 3 February 2026 as well as Keppel's issued share capital of 1,801,659,827 shares as at 31 December 2025. I would think that the valuation of this from retail investor point of view would be the upcoming ex-dividend date whereby the legal obligation has been fully transferred to the hands of shareholders hence it may not be really S$0.98 per unit at that juncture.

2A. Illustrative Example of Quantum of Special Dividends

(i) Assuming one is holding on to 9,900 Keppel Ltd shares. The final dividends due after AGM approval will be S$1,881 (S$0.19 per share X 9,900 shares).

(ii) Also to further illustrate how the dividend in specie works, assuming the same 9,900 Keppel Ltd shares. So the investor would be entitled to 1,100 units of Keppel REIT (9,900 shares divided by 9). So the special dividend in specie would be S$1,078 (1,100 units X S$0.98 per unit). Add on the special cash dividends in such case, one would get cash special dividends of S$198. Hence total special dividend awarded will be S$1,296 in special cash dividend and dividend in-specie.

Total upcoming final dividends in such scenario will thus be S$3,177. 

3. Ex-dividends and Payout Dates.

The ex-dividend date for the final dividend is 27 April 2026 while the pay-out date is on 8 May 2026. So, take note of these key dates if you are an investor of Keppel Ltd.

4. Parting Thoughts- Keppel Ltd Still A Good Buy?
Personally, I will not buy anymore of Keppel Ltd at this juncture as I think that it is overvalued from a dividend investing strategy perspective. Its normalised dividend yield of 2.6%, as previously discussed in point 1 above, is too low for me at its current market price of S$12.68 per share. My entry price for this investment is around S$6.45. I do not think that there is any fundamental change since my first purchase as the senior management of Keppel Ltd has already announced their new strategy of fund management and focus on recurring income 2 years ago. The only exception is that Piyush has joined the board of Keppel Ltd but take note that  it is a non-executive role and this seemed to be the main reason folks are chasing after Keppel Ltd. This is probably due to Piyush's stellar track record in transforming DBS before leaving it and joining Keppel Ltd- I called it the Piyush's effect.

Last but not least, the new FY2026 seems to have already another "special" dividend guaranteed for next year payout. This is because the S$1 billion cash sales proceed of M1 will only be counted towards FY2026 and Keppel Ltd management has mentioned that they will be returning back part of all successful monetisation efforts (10%-15%) in the form of special dividends to shareholders. 

Ok, that's all folks! Have a great week ahead! Happy Lunar New Year to All! Huat Arh!

(P.S: Please see my previous investment thesis on Keppel Ltd back in 2024- Click link to post here)

Trump To Bully Canada Into Submission To Its Will.

Donald Trump continues his crazy antics to whack Canada over its decision to lower trade tariffs with China and moving ever closer to its Asian rival. Now Trump is blocking the opening of the new Howe International Bridge, which connects Detroit and Windsor and using it as leverage against Mark Carney. Interestingly (according to Guardian), back in the 1930s, the US did draw up a plan to invade Canada: It will kick off with the seizing of a strategically valuable port city. US soldiers would then sever undersea cables, destroy bridges and rail lines to paralyze infrastructure. Major Canadian cities on the shores of lakes and rivers would be captured in order to blunt any civilian resistance.

1. Moving Military Defence Away from Solely US

Due to an essential need for advanced conventional (non-nuclear) under-ice capabilities, Ottawa seems to be prioritising building of twelve new units of submarines as well as maintenance package (37 billion Euros package) to non-US ship building firms.  It will select either South Korea or Germany vendors to deliver the boats. This clearly demonstrates a desire to avoid over-relianceof defence-industrial dependency on US and a sign of deteriorating relationship between US and Canada.  

2. Will US Invade Canada Given How Egoistic Donald Trump is and also Carney's Refusal to Submit His Country To Bullying Tactics?

Honestly, I hope this does not happen else it will be very bad for the global economies. Given that Donald Trump has only a few more years before his presidential tenure end and also the upcoming mid-term US election that is strongly anticipated to change the current political landscape, there is an extremely low probability that war will breakout. 

 

Parting Thoughts

Mark Carney may turn up to be one of the greatest Prime Minister of Canada who refused to let his country be bullied into submission to Trump's demands. His standing ovation speech at the World Economic Forum where he called for "middle powers, such as his own, to work together to counter the rise of hard power and the great power rivalry, in order to build a more cooperative, resilient world", riled Trump badly and he is all-out to hustle Carney. 

Opportunity Arises From the 2nd Major Bitcoin Crash- Margin Call and US$2 Trillion Tumble in Crypto Market.

Somebody told me that Bitcoin ("BTC") is the new digital "Gold". Well, it turns out to be extremely volatile and a bad store of value. From its high of US$125K just a few months back in October 2025, it had plummeted to US$61K at one point in time on 6th February 2026. The most shocking thing is I just bought S$1K worth of BTC at US$78K a few days ago on 3rd February 2026. Suddenly, it just dived further, I made another small nibble of S$500 when BTC hits US$72K and another S$500 at US$63K on 5th February and 6th February respectively. I think I have another S$500 entered at various prices from US$80K to US$90K during my account opening earlier this year with a crypto exchange approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ("MAS").  So in total, I have put up around S$2,500 in capital to speculate in BTC. 

Will Bitcoin Hit Zero?

Personally, I though that the fair value of BTC is zero. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely to ever hit zero. The simple reason is that BTC has come to be embraced by the mainstream financial institution and many governments. In January 2024, the US SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs as financial products. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs has also included BTC as part of their wealth management products. Hence institutional adoption in some way protects BTC from falling to zero. But no one knows exactly how much it will plunge further given the extreme pessimism in market sentiment. 

Additionally, many are waiting for MicroStrategy- which uses leverage to purchase BTC- to collapse. The domino effect if triggered will lead to some very ugly repercussion on global economies. 

Personal Thoughts

Since the flash crash in October 2025, crypto has once again suffered another rout in 2026. I thought that there is now an opening for those like myself who wants to diversify one's traditional investment portfolios into crypto assets.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust Mixed Q3 Results For 2025/2026.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust ("MPACT") reported a higher Q3 distribution relatively to prior year. Nonetheless, its Revenue and net property income actually decrease. The issue with MPACT is still the same, that is, its crown jewel Singapore asset- Vivocity- continues to shine brightly while its overseas investment properties are still facing headwinds. Its occupancy rate as a consolidated group is only 88.1%.  So if Singapore Vivocity is currently 100% occupied, one can easily see that its overseas assets performance has been nothing short of a disaster- Japan and China properties are at occupancy rate of only 73.1% and 83.6% respectively as seen per below screenshot:

Occupancy Rates Breakdown

1. Other Key Overseas Property-Festival Walk (Hong Kong)

While Festival Walk continued to show resilience in its occupancy rate at a high 98% for past 2 years, its rental reversion continued to reflect a negative trend of <-10%> for Q3.  

Negative Reversion Again for Q3

Additionally, MPACT also will be completing its divestment of the office component of Festival Walk by February 2026. I think that this is the right step for MPACT which is struggling in its financial performance due to its overseas investment properties.

2. Key Financial Highlights

Key Highlights

Q3 Financials

As per earlier discussed, MPACT Q3 results are a tad disappointing in terms of operations. The good news here is that its Finance Expenses has lowered significantly by +10.2%. This is a +S$6Mil savings in terms of finance expenses for a quarter. Saying that, MPACT is not yet out of the woods. Its overseas properties are dragging down its overall financial performance. It maybe time to just divest its China and Japan properties. As for Hong Kong retail, I think that Festival Walk should see a gradual slow down in its negative rental reversion given that its economy is finally seeing the lights at the end of the tunnel. 

Parting Thoughts

Overall, I thought that it is a decent quarter for MPACT especially with higher distributions to unit-holders despite the not so good overseas performance. Given its Net Asset Value of S$1.75 per unit vs the market price of S$1.46 per unit, there is a still a 16.5% discount to NAV. MPACT should continue to diversify its overseas assets in order to realise more intrinsic value for unit-holders.

Hong Kong Phoenix Rising From The Ash- Doubling Down on Link REIT.

I thought that Hong Kong seems to be doing extremely well again despite the slump that persist post COVID and the weakening local retail scene due to the exodus of HongKongers shoppers going to Shenzhen to wine, dine SPA and shopping etc. Good news is that Hong Kong has recorded strong growth in its wealth management business. In 2024, cross-border wealth booked in the city surged by $231 billion to $2.7 trillion, putting Hong Kong is thus on par with Switzerland, the long-time leader in cross-border wealth management, according to Boston Consulting Group Inc.’s latest Global Wealth Report. The surge was the largest in the world that year. From then on, its wealth management continued to flourish and grow from 2025 and even now. Hong Kong also remained a vital gateway to Chinese mainland due to its deep talent pool and long time experience in the wealth management sector. As such, I think that the current slump in its retail and commercial property markets should be bottoming soon with revival in its economy engine. 

1. Portfolio Restructuring and Doubling Down on Link REIT.

It has been scary indeed to see the plunge in rental rates in Hong Kong. My Hong Kong work colleagues were telling me all sort of horror stories over the past 2 years on empty shops and sharp drop in commercial rental. However, with the surge in HKEX IPOs over the past year as well as the news on its rapid growth in Wealth Management sector, I would think that green shoots have appeared and that Hong Kong's commercial property slump will desist and rise again. I have began taking profits from my investment portfolios (sold off all my remaining Ping'An Insurance shares and part of my Keppel Ltd stocks after 78% profits surge) and reallocating the funds into Link REIT as well as Amova STC Asia REIT ETF (this also contains HK Link REIT on top of SG REITs). 

2. Link REIT

Latest full-year financial interim  results showed NAV per unit at around HK$61.19 at 30 Sep 2025. Market price as at 23 January 2026 is HKD35.48 per unit. It is thus trading at a 42% to its NAV.  Interestingly, pre-COVID days, Link REIT was trading at around NAV per unit. As such, I believe that there is potential for another 20%-30% capital appreciation. Current distribution yield hovers around 7.4% (as per StockCafe) which also makes it extremely attractive. I am also looking forward to Link REIT IPO of its Singapore Shopping malls.  

Parting Thoughts

I have built up around S$80K of Link REIT HKEX position as at  23 January 2026 (Friday) in view of a potential 20%-30% capital appreciation within the next 2 years and a potential IPO of its Singapore shopping malls. Its high distribution yield of 7.4% is also very tempting. Anyway, the above are my personal thoughts.  

Trump Tariff Trade War Continues Over US Grand Ambition To Annex Greenland.

Wow, today's SGX blue chip stocks was a sea of mostly red. Market sentiment may have been affected by the recent threats from US to its European allies. The situation has escalated with the European Union ("EU") preparing a retaliatory EUR93 billion package of tariffs against the United States of America should it go ahead to increase the import tariffs on EU nations- Trump has earlier threaten that he will impose the additional Tariff on EU nations until they support the annexation of Greenland. What a mess it has been! Again, the threat of global inflation from sky high import tariffs maybe back and if interest rates starts spiralling upwards again, it will inevitably decimate the SREIT recovery.  

Prime Minister Set in Motion Internal Conflict Within Workers' Party By Asking For A New Nomination For new "Leader of The Opposition".

Just sharing my personal thoughts on the latest development from the Singapore Parliament. It has become more and more interesting as the fiasco continues. Our Prime Minister has moved on to remove Pritam Singh as the "Leader of the Opposition" in Singapore Parliament after the dreaded motion. Then, he went on to ask the Workers' Party ("WP") to nominate "another suitable" candidate. I don't think the Workers' Party will accept this post or nomination. Accepting this will mean challenging the WP veterans of Pritam Singh and Sylvia Lim and lead to lots of internal conflicts. Nonetheless, this is a brilliant move by the PAP folks....well....there is always a chance that WP might erupt into an internal fight over who should lead the party and then self-disintegrate.