The Battery King Stumbles-CATL (3750.HK) Down 57% From Its Peak: Bargain or Falling Knife?

Hi Folks, welcome back to Investment Income for Life! This week I want to talk about a stock that has given a lot of investors whiplash in 2026: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd, better known as CATL (HKEX: 3750). Since its IPO on HKEX in May 2025, this stock has been on my watchlist but it just kept climbing higher and higher till almost HKD800 per share relative to its IPO price of HKD263 per share. It is the undisputed king of EV batteries, yet its Hong Kong shares have crashed from a record HK$794.50 in June to just HK$338.40 as of 22 October 2026. That is a 57% drop in about four months. So is this a bargain in the making, or a falling knife? Let's dig into the numbers together.

1. Meet CATL, the Battery Giant
CATL was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Ningde, Fujian. It is the world's largest maker of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and also the No. 1 supplier of energy storage system (ESS) batteries. In 2025 it held 39.2% of the global EV battery market, its ninth straight year at the top, and 30.4% of global ESS shipments, its fifth straight year as leader.

Roughly 70% of revenue comes from EV batteries, about 15 to 20% from energy storage, and the balance from battery materials, recycling, lithium mining and other businesses. The A shares have traded in Shenzhen (300750) since 2018. The H shares listed in Hong Kong on 20 May 2025 at HK$263, the biggest IPO in the world that year, and joined the Hang Seng Index in February 2026.

One quirk worth knowing: the H-share float is tiny, only about 218 million out of 4.63 billion shares. That small float is why the H shares have traded at a large, and very jumpy, premium to the A shares.

2. The Share Price Rollercoaster

Here is the ride so far. From the IPO at HK$263, the stock more than doubled by October 2025, consolidated through the turn of the year, then rocketed after a blowout Q1 2026 to an all-time high of HK$794.50 in June. Since then it has been one-way traffic down. At HK$338.40, the shares are 33% below the 2025 year-end close of HK$505.50, though still about 29% above the IPO price.

3. Key Events You Should Know

•       20 May 2025: Hong Kong listing at HK$263, raising about US$4.6bn. Shares jumped 16% on debut.

•       9 Mar 2026: FY2025 results. Revenue up 17%, net profit up 42%, record gross margin of 26.3%, and a final dividend of RMB 6.957 per share.

•       1 Apr 2026: China cut the battery export VAT rebate from 9% to 6%.

•       Apr 2026: Q1 profit jumped 48.5%. The H/A premium hit a record 46 to 48%.

•       28 to 30 Apr 2026: CATL placed 62.4 million new H shares at HK$628.20, raising HK$39.2bn, the largest Hong Kong equity deal of 2026.

•       Jun 2026: Record high of HK$794.50. BNP Paribas downgraded the H shares as the premium to A shares reached 55%.

•       24 Jul 2026: 1H26 profit up 42%. Interim dividend RMB 1.411 per share, plus an A-share buyback of RMB 20 to 40bn (shares to be cancelled).

•       1 Sep 2026: A 2% consumption tax on lithium batteries kicked in, rising to 4% from September 2027.

•       Sep 2026: Xiaomi and Li Auto shifted some orders to in-house and tier-two battery suppliers.

•       20 to 22 Oct 2026: Q3 profit of RMB 21.25bn missed consensus, gross margin slid to 20.7%, and JPMorgan cut the H shares to Neutral. The stock fell to HK$338.40.

4. The Scorecard at a Glance
Here are the key numbers side by side. Note that FY2026 covers only nine months and is unaudited.

Metric	FY2025 (full year)	FY2026 (9M to 30 Sep)
Revenue	RMB 423.7bn (+17%)	RMB 442.1bn (+56%)
Net profit (attributable)	RMB 72.2bn (+42%)	RMB 64.5bn (+32%)
Earnings per share	RMB 16.14	RMB 14.13
Gross margin	26.3% (5-year high)	22.7% (Q3: 20.7%)
Free cash flow (est.)	~RMB 88bn	~RMB 17bn
Dividend per share	RMB 7.964 (~HK$8.84)	RMB 1.411 interim (HK$1.629)
Payout ratio	50%	~15% of 1H profit
Cash & bank balances	RMB 333.5bn	RMB 372.1bn (30 Jun)
NAV per share	~HK$82.0	~HK$96.2
Price / NAV	6.2x	3.5x

5. Growth Is Strong, but Quality Is Slipping
On the surface, growth looks fantastic. Revenue for just the first nine months of 2026 already exceeds the whole of FY2025, up 56% year-on-year, powered by energy storage which grew a whopping 88% in the first half. The problem is that profit is not keeping pace. Net profit grew 32%, and the gap is widening every quarter. In Q3, revenue rose 59% but profit rose only 15%.

The culprit is margins. Gross margin has slid from 26.3% in FY2025 to 20.7% in Q3, the third straight quarterly decline. A heavier mix of lower-value products, the smaller export rebate and the new 2% consumption tax are all eating into profitability. And remember, that tax applies for the whole of Q4, so the next quarter will not get a free pass.

6. Cash Flow Has Weakened Sharply
For income investors like us, cash flow is what really pays the dividends. FY2025 was a superb cash year, with roughly RMB 88bn of free cash flow, about 1.2 times reported profit. 2026 is a very different story. Operating cash flow fell 24% for the nine months and was a mere RMB 1.4bn in Q3, because receivables and inventories each ballooned by around 50%. Meanwhile capex is running at record levels. Nine-month free cash flow is only about RMB 17bn, roughly a quarter of reported profit. That is a yellow flag I would not ignore.

7. The Balance Sheet Is a Fortress
Now for the good news. CATL is sitting on RMB 372bn of cash, about four times its bank borrowings of RMB 95bn. Leverage is under 10% of total assets, the current ratio is a comfortable 1.6x, and the company actually earns more in interest income than it pays out. On top of that, the April placement topped up the war chest with HK$39bn raised at near-record prices. Liquidity is simply not a concern here.

8. What About the Dividends?
CATL has paid out 50% of profit for three years running, delivering a total dividend of RMB 7.964 per share for FY2025 (about HK$8.84). The 2026 interim payout, however, was trimmed to just 15% of first-half profit, although management paired it with a sizeable RMB 20 to 40bn A-share buyback with the shares to be cancelled.

Here is the catch for income seekers. Because the H shares have traded at a big premium, the yield is modest. On the FY2025 payout, the trailing yield was only about 1.75% at the 2025 year-end price. Even at today's much lower price, the yield based on last year's full dividend is around 2.6%, which is not exactly an income stock. Also note the buyback is executed in A shares, so H-share holders benefit only indirectly. The key question is whether the full 50% payout returns with the FY2026 final dividend.

9. Valuation Has Reset
After a 57% fall from the peak, valuation looks a lot more reasonable. Trailing P/E has dropped from about 28x at the end of 2025 to around 15x, and price-to-NAV has compressed from 6.2x to 3.5x. That is still a premium to book value, but I reckon justifiable for a business earning a return on equity above 20%.

For those investors who subscribed to the share placement exercise at HK$628.20 per share and whereby HK$ 39.2 billion (approximately SGD 6.5 billion) was raised, the current crash in valuation is devastating. It means that new entrant shareholders are buying CATL at an almost whopping 50% discount to takeover their shares.

10. What I Am Watching Next

•       Q4 2026 margins: management expects a recovery, but the consumption tax bites for the full quarter.

•       Price pass-through: whether carmakers agree to share the new tax costs.

•       Market share in China: install share has slipped from 47.7% in Q1 to 41.3% in Q3 as tier-two players gain ground.

•       Working capital: receivables and inventories need to turn back into cash.

•       FY2026 final dividend: will the 50% payout ratio make a comeback?

•       Overseas expansion: progress at the Hungary (Debrecen) plant and the Spain joint venture with Stellantis.

11. Parting Thoughts
CATL remains the dominant, highly profitable and cash-rich leader in EV and energy storage batteries, and storage has become a genuine second growth engine. But the 2026 story has shifted from growth with expanding margins to growth with shrinking margins and weaker cash conversion, made worse by tax changes and big customers diversifying their suppliers.

At around 15x trailing earnings, the H shares now price in a good chunk of that bad news. Still, the next two quarters of margins and cash flow will tell us whether this is just a healthy reset or the start of a longer de-rating. For dividend-focused investors, the yield is not compelling enough on its own, so this is more of a growth-at-a-reasonable-price watchlist candidate than a core income holding. Personally, I would wait for evidence of margin stabilisation and a return to the 50% payout before getting excited. 

Ok folks, that's all from me today. Have a great week ahead!

(Disclaimer: This post is for information and education only and is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial adviser. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision.)

Great Deal for Keppel Ltd, Not So Much for Keppel REIT Unitholders S$611 Million for a 60%-Occupied Building? A Closer Look at Keppel REIT’s Latest Buy.

Hi Folks, welcome back to Investment Income for Life. This morning (20 October 2026), Keppel Ltd announced that it will sell a 51% stake in Keppel South Central to its own sponsored REIT, Keppel REIT, for about S$611 million. On the surface it looks like a routine sponsor-to-REIT asset injection. But when you dig into the fine print, I think this is a very good deal for Keppel Ltd and a much less convincing one for Keppel REIT unitholders. Let me walk you through why.

1. The Deal in a Nutshell

Keppel South Central is a 33-storey Grade A office tower at 10 Hoe Chiang Road in Tanjong Pagar, completed in January 2025, with a net lettable area of about 522,500 sq ft. It carries top-tier green and smart building certifications (Green Mark Platinum Super Low Energy, WiredScore Platinum, SmartScore Platinum).

Keppel REIT will pay a total of about S$611 million in cash, made up of roughly S$149 million for the shares and roughly S$462 million to repay shareholder loans owed to Keppel. The agreed property value is S$1,228 million for 100% of the building, or about S$626 million for the 51% stake, which works out to around S$2,350 per sq ft of NLA. Completion is expected in 2Q2027, subject to Keppel REIT unitholders approving it at an EGM.

2. Why This Is a Sweet Deal for Keppel Ltd

First, Keppel gets cash. Around S$611 million flows back to Keppel, pushing its announced asset monetisation to S$3.7 billion year to date. Management has been clear that this capital will be recycled into higher-return opportunities, used to reduce debt and to reward shareholders. For Keppel shareholders who like special dividends and buybacks, that is music to the ears.

Second, Keppel has already done very well from this building. By its own account, Keppel South Central has generated more than S$380 million in total profits (including fair value gains) since its redevelopment in 2020. Selling now crystallises part of that gain.

Third, and this is the part I find most interesting, Keppel gives up control of 51% of the ownership but keeps almost all of the fee income. Keppel Real Estate Services will sign a new property management agreement and keep providing property management and leasing services. On top of that, Keppel's own REIT manager runs Keppel REIT, so a bigger REIT means higher asset-based management fees. Keppel calls this bringing the building into its "asset management ecosystem". In plain English: Keppel sells the bricks, keeps the fee stream.

Fourth, Keppel keeps 49% and an option to take back the rest. Although the building is freehold, the deal is priced as if Keppel REIT only holds a 70-year leasehold interest. After 70 years (or earlier upon certain specified events), Keppel can buy back the REIT's 51% for a grand total of S$1. Keppel effectively gets the freehold "tail" back for free.

3. Why I Am Less Excited as a Keppel REIT Unitholder

The biggest issue is that the building has not stabilised. As at 15 October 2026, committed occupancy was only about 60%, and that figure includes leases still being documented. Another 20% is "under negotiation", which is not the same as signed. Keppel REIT is paying a full Grade A valuation for an asset that is still in lease-up mode, so most of the leasing risk is being handed to the REIT.

Next, unitholders are paying freehold-style prices for what is economically a 70-year lease. A leasehold interest is a depreciating asset. Every year that passes, the remaining lease shortens, and at the end of 70 years the REIT's stake goes back to Keppel for S$1. REIT investors should mentally price in that decay rather than treating this like a perpetual freehold holding.

Then there is the governance angle. After completion, the company is expected to be converted into a limited liability partnership where decisions require unanimous resolution, with deadlock provisions. Keppel REIT may own the majority, but practically it cannot act without the sponsor's agreement. Majority ownership, shared control.

Finally, this is a related-party deal, with Keppel sitting on both sides as vendor, sponsor, REIT manager and property manager. It is allowed under the SGX rules (the announcement cites the Rule 915(3) exception), but it is precisely the type of transaction where minority unitholders need to scrutinise the price very carefully at the EGM.

4. The Income Support: Comfort or a Crutch?

To make the numbers work despite 60% occupancy, Keppel will provide income support. The REIT is guaranteed S$2,230,170 a month for its 51% share, which is about S$26.8 million a year. Keppel tops up any shortfall and also pays for tenancy works, tenancy incentives and capex during this period.

Based on my own quick sums, S$26.8 million on the S$626 million agreed value is an implied yield of only about 4.3%, and that is the guaranteed, best-case figure during the support period. For a Singapore office REIT, that is hardly a bargain. Note also that the guaranteed amount is set based on the building reaching 95% stabilised occupancy, so it is essentially a promise of what the building is supposed to earn, not what it earns today.

The support ends at the earliest of the building reaching 95% occupancy with the actual income meeting the guaranteed amount, or five years, or the REIT no longer being a shareholder. My concern is the five-year cliff. If leasing is slower than hoped, distributions are propped up for five years and then the REIT is left holding the real, unsupported number. Income support makes the DPU look good in the short run, but it does not change the underlying quality of the income.

5. What I Will Be Watching

Before the EGM, I will be looking out for how Keppel REIT funds the S$611 million (debt, new units, or both) and whether the deal is actually DPU-accretive on an ex-income-support basis. I will also be tracking whether the 20% of space under negotiation converts into signed leases, and what the independent financial adviser says about fairness. Interest rates matter too: if the REIT borrows at close to 4%, the spread over a 4.3% supported yield is wafer-thin.

To be fair to Keppel REIT, there are positives. It gets a brand new, highly certified Grade A tower in a growing precinct at the gateway to the Greater Southern Waterfront, plus tenants such as Manulife Financial Advisers, Industrious and the Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore. If leasing goes well, the support may never be needed and the REIT may own a gem. But that "if" is carrying a lot of weight.

6. Parting Thoughts: My  Personal Take

I hold shares in both Keppel Ltd and also units in Keppel REIT. Actually, this is a classic sponsor win. Keppel Ltd unlocks cash, books another step in its asset-light transformation, keeps 49% plus the management and leasing fees, and holds an option to reclaim the full freehold for S$1 in 70 years. Keppel REIT, on the other hand, takes on lease-up risk at a full valuation, with a modest supported yield and a five-year income support cliff.

If I were a Keppel Ltd shareholder, I would be reasonably pleased. If I were a Keppel REIT unitholder, I would want to read the circular very carefully before voting yes.

As always, this post is my personal view for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Ok folks, that's all from me today. Have a great week ahead!

This US Based SREIT Declined 23% Since July 2026 and Now Giving Out 10.2% Dividend Yield.

 

Today's deep dive into United Hampshire US REIT and its 42% discount to NAV and also the key risks to watch out for holding SREIT with US assets.

SGX REIT Data- As at 16 October 2026 Closing- Quick Reflection.

Hi Folks, welcome back to Investment Income for Life. This week I did something a little different. I got AI to help me compute a forward distribution yield for every SGX-listed REIT and stapled trust, all 39 of them, using closing prices as at Friday, 16 October 2026. The method is simple: take the latest routine distribution, annualise it (x2 for half-yearly payers, x4 for quarterly payers), and divide by the unit price. The key tweak: I told it to ignore any advanced distributions paid out before a rights issue or preferential offering for an acquisition, as well as one-off gains. Those payouts tend to distort the numbers, so stripping them out normalises the yield for sanity. Let's dive in.

Part 1-Click Picture to Enlarge for Viewing

Part 2-Click Picture to Enlarge for Viewing

1. The Big Picture
Across the 39 counters (excluding those not paying distributions), the average forward yield works out to 7.37% and the median to 6.92%. That is a very decent income stream for a basket of hard assets.

But the average hides a very wide spread. At one end, leaving aside BHG Retail REIT's token 0.52%, Parkway Life REIT yields just 4.37%. At the other, Sasseur REIT and ESR REIT are both above 11%. As always, the yield tells you as much about the market's fears as it does about the income.

2. The "Quality Premium" Club
Only six REITs are trading above their NAV and the notable ones as follow:

- Parkway Life REIT: +56.0% premium, 4.37% yield

- Keppel DC REIT: +19.7% premium, 5.52% yield

- Mapletree Industrial Trust: +9.8% premium, 6.95% yield (Note: MIT is in trouble over its North America data centres that are old school kind and unable to support the current in demand hyperscaler type)

- CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust: +3.7% premium, 5.40% yield

These are the names the market trusts: strong sponsors, resilient sectors (healthcare, data centres, Singapore industrial and retail) and a track record of steady DPU. You pay up for that peace of mind, and the yield is lower as a result. The other 32 counters with a stated NAV are all trading at a discount.

3. The Double-Digit Yielders
Five REITs are offering 10% or more on a forward basis:

- Sasseur REIT: 11.22% (Retail, China outlet malls)

- ESR REIT: 11.14% (Industrial, based on core DPU)

- First REIT: 10.65% (Healthcare, Indonesia hospitals)

- United Hampshire US REIT: 10.16% (Retail, US grocery-anchored)

- Elite UK REIT: 10.00% (Commercial, UK government-leased offices)

Hot on their heels are Daiwa House Logistics Trust (9.33%), CapitaLand India Trust (9.09%) and NTT DC REIT (9.04%). Most of these carry some form of currency, geographic or tenant concentration risk, which is why the market demands a higher yield to hold them.

4. The 70%+ Discount Graveyard: KORE, MUST and Prime
Now for the most interesting part of the table. The three US office REITs are trading at eye-watering discounts to book value:

- Manulife US REIT (MUST): -83.2% discount, distributions still suspended

- KORE US REIT: -79.1% discount, 5.48% yield

- Prime US REIT: -78.5% discount, 8.77% yield

These REITs imploded post COVID as work from home hollowed out demand for US offices. Occupancy fell, valuations got slashed, gearing went up and distributions were cut or suspended to preserve cash. I lost 1 arm and 2 legs holding all 3 of them previously as they held up well during COVID period...but thereafter, everyone knows what happened. When the market prices a REIT at 20 cents on the dollar of NAV, it is basically saying it does not believe the NAV.

I am not sure whether there are still many "value hunters" investing and holding them. Their unit prices have been in the doldrums for many years already, and every "this is the bottom" call so far has been premature. A deep discount on its own is not a margin of safety if the NAV keeps getting written down. For me, these remain a watch-from-the-sidelines group until there is clear evidence that office leasing in the US markets has turned.

5. United Hampshire US REIT: The One That Caught My Eye
United Hampshire US REIT ("UHREIT") looks very interesting. At US$0.425, it trades at a 41.8% discount to its NAV of US$0.73, and its 1H26 DPU of 2.16 US cents annualises to 4.32 US cents, a forward yield of 10.16% per annum.

Unlike the US office trio, UHREIT's grocery-anchored and necessity-based retail centres have held up far better. But as usual, the high yield reflects real uncertainty over the distributions, including:

- US interest rates staying higher for longer, which pushes up borrowing costs and weighs on valuations

- A depreciating USD against the SGD, which erodes returns for Singapore-based investors

- Potential changes to US withholding tax rules in an unpredictable policy environment under the current US administration

- Sponsors being unable to come to the rescue during REIT financial crisis, as the Trust Deed places constraints on how much they can increase their unitholdings before the REIT-Taxation vehicle breakdowns.

Maybe I will do a deeper review of UHREIT in another post when I have the time.

6. Parting Thoughts
- Yield is the price of uncertainty. The higher it goes, the harder you need to look at gearing, interest cover, currency and refinancing risk.

- A big discount to NAV is only cheap if the NAV is real. The US office REITs are the clearest reminder of that.

- The blue-chip S-REITs (CICT, CLAR, MIT, MLT, FCT) are yielding roughly 5.4% to 7.0%. Not spectacular, but steady, and they form the core of an income portfolio for many of us.

Anyway, personally for me, I am not in a hurry to go down big on SREITs, as I think more rate hikes are coming which should keep SREITs price depressed for a long time. 

Ok folks, that's all from me today. Have a great weekend ahead!

Disclaimer:
The forward yields above are my own simple computations based on the latest routine distribution and the closing price on 16 October 2026. Actual future distributions may be higher or lower. This post is for information and sharing only and is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence before investing.

Kimly at a 17% Discount: Time to Grab a 5.48% Dividend Yield Before the Mainboard Move?

Hi Folks, welcome back to Investment Income for Life!

Today we are going to discuss an interesting opportunity that has opened up for one of Singapore's favourite coffeeshop operators - Kimly Ltd. The share price has pulled back from its peak, and for patient dividend investors, this may be a window worth paying attention to for both dividends and capital appreciation. Let's dive in.

1. The Opportunity: A 17% Discount To The Recent Peak

On May 7, 2026, DBS initiated coverage of Kimly Ltd. Applying a PE multiple of 18 times earnings, the bank arrived at a target price of S$0.52 per share.

The market liked what it heard. Kimly rallied to over S$0.44 by mid May 2026 on the back of the bullish analyst report.

Here is the good news for those who have not bought into Kimly yet. The share price has since cooled off to S$0.365 per share as at Oct 15, 2026. Relative to the peak of S$0.44, that is a discount of about 17% on your entry price. Measured against the DBS target of S$0.52, there is a potential upside of roughly 42%, before dividends.

And speaking of dividends - at S$0.365, the forward dividend yield works out to 5.48% per annum. That is based on Kimly's steady S$0.01 per share payout made twice a year (S$0.02 per year). Not too shabby for a business that sells kopi and chicken rice to Singaporeans every single day.

2. Things To Note About The New Kimly: Moving Up To The Mainboard

On August 17, 2026, Kimly's board of directors decided to transfer the company's listing from the Catalist Board to the SGX Mainboard. An EGM will be held in January 2027 to seek approval from existing shareholders.

Why does this matter? A Mainboard listing generally puts a company on the radar of a wider pool of investors, including funds that are not allowed to invest in Catalist stocks. This should hopefully boost trading liquidity, and in time, could help narrow any valuation discount Kimly suffers as a Catalist counter.

3. A Shift Towards An Asset Heavy Model

Another point to note is that Kimly seems to be embarking on a more asset heavy operating model. The group recently announced the acquisition of a coffeeshop at Haig Road for a purchase consideration of S$11.8 million.

The deal is financed through a mix of:

   a) External bank borrowings of S$5.8 million;

   b) A shareholder loan of S$5.0 million; and

   c) Internal cash reserves.

Owning the property rather than leasing it gives Kimly more control over its outlets and protects it from rental hikes. The trade-off is higher borrowings and more capital tied up in bricks and mortar. As income investors, we will want to keep a close eye on gearing, interest costs and, most importantly, whether the dividend payout remains intact.

4. My Personal Action On Kimly Over The Last 6 Months

Full transparency, folks. I sold off more than half of my stake in Kimly on May 7, 2026 when the price shot up to S$0.42 per share. Locking in profits on a sharp, news-driven spike seems to have paid off.

Thereafter, I bought back some Kimly shares in the S$0.39 to S$0.405 range. Today, I just added additional shares at S$0.37 per share. I will be adding even more shares soon if the current share price weakness persists. For me, Kimly remains a steady dividend payer in a very defensive, needs-based business.

5. Kimly Share Price - The Past 12 Months At A Glance

Here is how Kimly's monthly closing share price has moved over the past 12 months:

A few observations from the chart:

   a) Kimly has traded in a fairly tight band of roughly S$0.375 to S$0.43 on a monthly closing basis over the year. This is a low volatility stock, which suits income investors well.

   b) Trading volume spiked in January 2026 (about 20.0 million shares) and May 2026 (about 17.9 million shares), the two months when buying interest was strongest.

   c) The share price has drifted lower since August 2026, which is exactly the kind of weakness long-term dividend investors can use to accumulate.

6. Final Thoughts

Kimly offers a 5.48% forward yield, a potential re-rating catalyst from the Mainboard transfer, and a share price that sits about 17% below its recent peak. Do keep an eye on the higher borrowings from the Haig Road acquisition, and as always, do your own due diligence before investing. This post is not a buy or sell recommendation.

Ok folks, that's all from me today. Have a great week ahead!

Why I am Buying Bonds Now Albeit Upcoming Fed Interest Hikes?

 

Why I am Buying Bonds Now Albeit Upcoming Fed Interest Hikes?

Singapore Bank Stocks Just Fell Hard. Are They Overvalued, or Is This a Normal Pullback or A Major Crash Coming?

Hi Folks, welcome back to Investment Income For Life. For most of 2026, owning DBS, UOB and OCBC was easy. Then on 7–8 October the three banks lost between 6% and 10% in just two trading days. Many investors are now asking whether the rally went too far and there are many posts on social media talking about it and there are a lot of fear mongering on further crashes in banking stock prices.

1. What happened? 

On 8 October DBS closed at S$73.85, UOB at S$40.25 and OCBC at S$29.00. Two days earlier they were at about S$78.56, S$43.72 and S$32.20. OCBC fell the most after Citi downgraded it to “Sell”. Citi expects flat third-quarter earnings and also pointed to a weaker wealth-management outlook and valuations above regional peers. Other reasons given for the sell-off:

(i) The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.32%.

(ii) Bank shares were being sold around the world.

(iii) Investors took profits after a very strong run.

2. My Personal Perspective and Thoughts. 

Even after the drop, DBS is still up about 36% over 12 months, UOB about 14% and OCBC about 72%. OCBC now trades at about 2.1 times book value, up from roughly 1.4 times at the end of 2025. That is where the “overvalued” worry comes from.

3. Three ways to handle it if you hold these banking stocks

(i) Look at the drop against August prices, and keep holding. The fall looks much smaller next to prices two months ago than next to the September peak. OCBC traded around S$29–30 in early August, which is about where it is now. DBS (S$73.36) and UOB (S$40.25) are back near their mid-to-late August levels. If you bought for the long term and the dividends, giving back about two months of gains may be no reason to change your plan.

(ii) Worried about valuations? Sell half lor. If high price-to-book ratios make you uneasy, a common middle path is to sell half of each bank position. You lock in part of a very good year, but you still collect dividends and keep some upside if prices recover. It also takes away the pressure of having to call the top exactly right. This was my approach to OCBC back in August 2026 when it traded above S$29 per share and sold around half of it and re-invest the proceeds into other non-banking stocks.

(iii) Optimistic? Then try buying more during the current price correction lah. Some investors believe higher interest rates will lift banks’ net interest margins (the gap between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits). They also expect wealth management to keep growing while rates stay high. For them, a 7–10% pullback from record highs is a chance to buy, and some analysts still see upside for DBS and UOB. A fair warning: some analysts expect the opposite. They see rising deposit competition and a lower SORA (Singapore’s benchmark interest rate) squeezing margins. Buying in two or three smaller lots ahead of the third-quarter results lowers the risk of buying too early.

Personal Thoughts

Honestly, I am not sure why there seems to be a ruckus being made due to the sharp plunge in valuation over 1-2 days. DBS, UOB and OCBC are definitely over-priced and this ecstasy cannot keep running up forever especially when we are talking about the Singapore SGX. So, if one is super worried about further crash such that you can no longer sleep peacefully at night, then just sell half of one's current holdings. Ok folks, that's all from me today. Have a great week ahead!