Showing posts with label Hong Leong Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hong Leong Finance. Show all posts

Sunday, 3 March 2024

Hong Leong Finance Released Horrendous Set of FY2023 Results- Best To Head For the Exit.

 
Hong Leong Finance (“HLF”) just released a horrendous set of FY2023 results. Personally, I thought that from the result announcement deck, one can already see the lack of efforts by the HLF presentation team. There were no powerpoint deck prepared like other listed companies to “beautify” their materials. The presentation team can’t even be bothered to put up a content page listing down the summary and page number of key financial reports (you can look at Haw Par Corporation- at least they bother to do a simple content page). Why I am saying this is that every job is a self-portrayal of  one-self and one should always endorse it with excellence….this seems to give one a sense of the culture inside the HLF organization from the lack of further efforts in their basic presentation materials. Anyway, just my personal belief and impression.

Horrendous Set of FY2023 Results with Dividends Cut.
Now back to the FY2023 results discussion- please see screenshot extract below of the published materials: 

Overall, profits for FY2023 attributable to shareholders dropped a whopping <28.7%> from S$ 131Mil in FY2022 to only S$93Mil. This is terrible given that the local banks such as DBS, UOB and OCBC are reporting record profits for FY2023. HLF interest income increased by a mere 68.8% but its interest expense increased exponentially by 286.4%! 

Now, some folks will jump in and say that HLF cannot be compared to banks as it is a finance company. My point is simple, I will be better off investing my funds in the local blue chip banks rather than wasting the past year in HLF.

Another point is that the activities of HLF is a subset of what the banks provide- if management were to sell away their HLF business, the local banks will be potential bidders for it. 

Parting thoughts
Let’s call a spade a spade. My personal thoughts are that HLF management team has performed badly as alluded to the FY2023 financial performance which is shocking. Their senior management should take a leaf out of Joseph Tsai’s book on what he had done at Alibaba, that is replacing the executive team of its various business units if the old ones are running out of ideas on staying competitive and growing the business. Alternatively, just sell off the business to the local or international banks to realize the net asset value per share of S$4.59 relative to its last market trading price of S$2.48 per share as at 29 Feb 2024. 

(P.S: I have decided to sell off all my personal and family portfolios related holdings in HLF. Initially, I thought of going to the AGM to raise the above improvement points but based on my personal sensing of the culture in place, think it will be just a waste of my own time. So I voted with my own feet out of this disappointing investment foray into HLF.) 

Sunday, 6 August 2023

Saying Goodbye To Hong Leong Finance!

Hong Leong Finance ("HLF") released a set of extremely disappointing 1st half 2023 results that was far below my expectation and a far cry from its stellar 2nd half 2022 results. While HLF posted a 3.2 per cent rise in net profit to S$46.6 million for the first half ended 30 June 2023 relative to 30 June 2022, I was expecting the profits to increase by at least 50%. The miserly management have also reduced the interim dividends to 3.5 cents per share relative to previous year 3.75 cents despite the better profit numbers. (Note: For those who prefers You-Tube Video on this, please click here)
I have sold off all 10,000 shares in HLF that I have accumulated in different tranches from Feb 2023 to July 2023 and realized a paltry annualised profit of 9.98%. Think it will be more worthwhile to invest in the 3 local banks or other SREITs rather than HLF. Will probably re-deploy the capital if the market presents a good entry opportunity. 

Monday, 17 July 2023

Hong Leong Finance Looks Set For Record FY2023 1st Half Earnings- Projected 7.3% Annualised Dividend Yield.

Hong Leong Finance ("HLF") looks set to report a record earnings for its 1st half performance of FY2023 given that the global rate hikes in earlier part of the year should have pushed up its Net Interest Margin ("NIM"). Despite previous announcement that its FY2022 net profit after tax has increased by +54.4% relative to FY2021, HLF share price has barely moved up and on the contrary, decreased even further, relative to prior years. Pre-COVID 2019 days, HLF's share price was at S$2.66 per share as at 31 December 2019. HLF share price is currently at only S$2.50 per share as at 14 July 2023 (which strangely marks a decrease in market price performance amidst the stellar FY2022 results). At this price, HLF is currently offering an impressive dividend yield of 6.8% based on historical distribution-pls see pt 2 below for the upward revision in projection of 2023 yield given that 1st half of FY2023 should be a lot better than 1st half of FY2022 previously. 

1. HLF's 5 Year Key Financial Highlights and Huge Discount of Market Price to Net Assets Per Share.
A record high of S$77.1Mil was retained by HLF in FY2022 relative to prior years of S$43.4Mil in FY2021 and also pre-COVID 2019 of S$36.1Mil. Its Net Assets ("NTA") Per Share is S$4.55 per share as at 31 December 2022. This is a stunning +82% premium over its current share price of S$2.50 per share as at 14 July 2023. I expect the NTA per share  for the 1st half ending 30 June 2023 to go up even further given the higher interest rate environment and the higher NIM.
Extract of AGM and Shareholder Query to HLF's Chairman Mr Kwek Leng Beng
Unfortunately, the current senior management of HLF does not seemed to be too keen to unlock the value for its heavily discount market price-please see above screenshot AGM extract. I do not want to speculate too much on the "strange" response but personally, I think that there are a number of actions that can be done to unlock share price such as share buybacks, increase dividends payout, or corporate action like privatization or selling off to a 3rd party.  

2. Annualised Forward Dividend Yield To Cross Over 7.3% In FY2023
Personally, I would expect HLF to be giving out interim dividends of S$0.05 per share due to expected better results for 1H FY2023. Using historical 2nd half dividends of FY2022 of S$0.1325, this will give an annualised dividends of S$0.1825 and an yield of 7.3%. I am also of the view that the good old days of low and cheap financing rates are over and that higher interest rates is here to stay which will benefit HLF. 

Parting Thoughts
The bad news here is that HLF has always been trading at a discounted fraction of its NTA for many years. The market price of other financial institutions like Development Bank of Singapore, United Overseas Bank and Overseas Chinese Banking Corporation have generally always been at a premium of over 1 times to their respective NTAs- so some might call holding on to HLF as a value trap. 

Furthermore, I do not think that Hong Leong Group will want to trigger any sell-off of HLF as long as Mr Kwek Leng Beng is still helming Hong Leong- his reply at AGM regarding the abnormally low share price is as good as no reply. Nevertheless, I think that in 4-5 years time, once there is a change in new generational leadership at Hong Leong Group, the new senior management team may decide to eventually sell off HLF to the local banks given that its competitive advantage is limited relative to the local big 3 financial institutions. The huge discount of 82% of HLF market price to its NTA just does not make logical sense without taking corporate action to enhance value to all shareholders. 

P.S: For those holding on to HLF, please do share your personal outlook and perspective over this lacklustre stock that remains in a slump.

(Note: I am currently vested in 10,000 shares of HLF- started acquiring its shares in different tranches from the beginning of 2023).

Sunday, 2 April 2023

Bad News From Mapletree Logistics Trust And Recent Investment Notes.

To be honest, I was initially dancing with joy when Mapletree Logistics Trust (“MLT”) announced that it was on an acquisition spree of up to 10 logistics properties that will be yield accretive to DPU. However, my joy turned into deep sorrow quickly when it was revealed that there will be no rights issue for existing unit holders but only a private placement for the equity component funding. I think that this is very unfair to existing unit-holders as new unit-holders got their units (@$1.649 per unit) at a discount to market price. But guess that MLT wants to complete the deal lightning fast and to have absolute certainty on the fund raising so all existing unit-holders just have to suck thumb. The only consolation here is that there will soon be another cash distribution from MLT (1 Jan 2023 to 10 April 2023) to existing unit-holders before issuing out new units.

Other investment highlights
For me, I do not usually do “monthly investment portfolios” updates like other bloggers at every month end as many times, nothing much has changed within 1 month but nevertheless, I try to update it every 2-3 months for documentation purpose- will probably update it at end of April’23 or beginning of May’23. 

Basically, stock markets are still in doldrums. Things may get worse before it gets better. Personally, the old adage that the stock market is always 6 months ahead of actual economic fundamental is eerily true for me at most time. My thoughts are that there are many good bargains out there for the picking during these dark times. My recent own acquisition sprees in the past month are:

1. ComfortDelgro (recovery play);
2. Hong Leong Finance (boring pick but historically well managed financial institution);
3. NetLink Trust (stable and resilient recurring revenue);
4. Haw Par Corporation (“Tiger balm” company that holds lots of UOB stocks as its strategic investments);
5. DigiCore REIT (its price crash till all time low due to concerns over another tenant bankruptcy);
6. United Hampshire US REIT (resilient revenue from its grocery tenants) and 
7. Fidelity Global Dividend Fund (decided to use Endowus and further diversify investments into funds)

Parting thoughts
Will the global economies and stock markets go down further from here despite the recent rally? Well, I am not sure and does not have a crystal ball. After the past years of abundance and excesses, the COVID pandemic finally ended the prosperous era and kicked off the “years of famine”. I will just continue to invest regularly to build up my passive income portfolio and wait for the better time to return and reap capital returns.