Tuesday 28 December 2021

Trading Halt For Both Mapletree Commercial Trust and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust

Trading halt was called since this morning for both Mapletree Commercial Trust ("MCT") and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust ("MNACT"). Looks like a possible merger and acquisition involving the two REITs to build up its size for greater synergy? Yesterday, I was trying to buy additional Mapletree North Asia Trust due to its high distribution yield of around 6.5% but was very surprised to see the price keep shooting upwards and have to give up. SGX  regulators ought to do better in preventing leakage of important information from leaking out before major announcements. In the end, I decided to invest the extra cash into Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (this is another story that I will share on another day). Let's keep our fingers crossed that Mapletree will come up with some value adding initiative in their upcoming announcement for all investors.

(Note: I am currently vested in both MCT and MNACT).

Tuesday 14 December 2021

Dasin Retail Trust On The Verge Of Bankruptcy Declaration? Will It Be Suspended From Trading on SGX?

This is a follow up on my previous post on Dasin Retail Trust ("Dasin") on 18th September 2021 with regard to its debt crisis of S$500Mil since the syndicated bankers were willing to only grant a short term extension of 5 months from July 2021. The day of reckoning for Dasin approaches this week with the bank loan officially being in default on 19th December 2021 if it is unable to secure support from the syndicated bankers. Up till today, there is still no news being released by Dasin's new Trust Manager, Sino Ocean on SGX. Dasin's senior management has been silent since the last announcement made to the public on 7th November 2021 on the change in new Trust Manager. Unit prices for Dasin also dropped sharply and is now near its all time low at S$0.375 per unit in stark contrast to S$0.785 per unit during its peak this year. The silence for so many weeks in the face of imminent loan default is deafening. Are we witnessing the calm before the storm?
1. Taking calculated risk
I am still holding on to my small stake in Dasin Retail Trust as my investment thesis is that since the new Trust Manager, Sino Ocean which took over is a listed company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and well-known, the bankers will be willing to grant a long term extension of the due bank loan instead of rolling into a default and proceeding with creditor winding up process. Forced sales of investment properties is not going to be good for all stakeholders. Its current dividend yield is close to +14.2% based on its last unit price of S$0.375 per unit as at 14 December 2021.
2. Liquidation stress testing of realisable assets to repay bank loans and Unitholders
I have written in to the Customer Relation Officer on their website but till now have not received any reply on the status of its bank loan negotiation. In the worst case scenario, we have to assume that the fair value of the investment properties in Dasin's books have been severely inflated. If distressed selling price is at a discount of <-47.3%> of its last disclosed numbers, then this will mean a total loss for current investors-pls see below screenshot for illustrative simulation model. Not impossible given the case of Eagle Hospitality Trust. Also, given that China property debt crisis from Evergrande- if not managed well- may lead to a case of economic meltdown in the entire China market across all sectors. However, I am keeping my fingers crossed that the discounted selling price is at most only 40% off the last valuation in order to recoup back some of the investment costs. 
Parting thoughts
I have no idea how my tiny foray into Dasin will turn out. My investment thesis may turn out to be totally wrong. If so, this will be the 2nd SGX listed Trust (within this 2 years) that collapsed with investors losing all of their investments. The only good thing about Dasin is that the results will be known quickly by next Monday (20th Dec 2021) latest. It will either increase by maybe 50% from good news on renewal of bank loan or be suspended indefinitely due to default of bank loan when the announcement is released.

Please also see my previous posts on Dasin:

Sunday 5 December 2021

Investment Portfolios Updates- S$619k (3 Dec'21)- Equity Portfolios Facing Challenge of Omicron COVID Variant

The stock markets tanked recently due to the Omicron variant. I have sold off 42,000 units of my SPH REITs under my Portfolios to raise cash level at the start of the week. Subsequently, prices of local bank stocks and REITs dropped further and I took the opportunity to buy into more OCBC and Mapletree Industrial Trust while retaining some cash. My investment approach is still primarily an income focused strategy using cash account (Portfolio 1) supplemented by my Portfolio 2 opened with Maybank Kim Eng and leveraging on their Margin facilities-current projected dividend income is +S$44.6K per annum. For me, no point in timing the market by selling a major part of the portfolio as it is better to stay invested in order to continue to receive dividends and not missed out on opportunities such as new M&A announcements.  

1. Portfolio 1- Stocks held in SGX Central Depository
Not much action here except for selling off of SPH REITs to buy into 1,000 OCBC shares while retaining cash of around S$10K here from the sales.

2. Portfolio 2- Margin purchased securities
(i) The past 2 months has been rather interesting. I took a calculated risk with my margin account by buying into SPH shares after the announcement of Keppel Corp proposed acquisition at S$2.01, figuring that the market pricing then at around S$1.90-S$1.93 range, offers the most probable upsides with S$2K in profits expected with the successful completion of the offer. Next, Cuscaden Peak came into the picture to start the bidding war and I closed off my margin position in SPH shares recently to walk away with +S$6K profits (S$2.34 per share exit) as I do not think there will be another 3rd party offer.

(ii) I have reduced my holdings in retails REITs such as Lendlease REIT and SPH REIT. Anti-COVID measures will hit retail badly if the Omicron strain spreads widely.  

(iii) I have also increased my holdings in Mapletree Industrial Trust. I figured that it is prudent risk management to have the backing of strong sponsor like Temasek in the event that the COVID crisis worsen and there is a need for sponsor's cash injection should the property value plummet like in 2008. 

3. Portfolio 3 (with Tiger Brokers)- Venture into higher risk as well as capital growth stocks here
However, my venture into China Alibaba continues spiraling downward non-stop with concern over forced delisting by China regulator from NYSE and I am taking a huge hit of unrealised loss of almost <S$9k> from it. I will probably do a short write-up on Alibaba in my next post. 

Basically, I think the fundamentals of Alibaba are still intact despite the crackdowns by China regulatory and the lower growth rate. Just this week, I have invested another 100 shares of Alibaba at a price of HKD121.6 per share. But I think this is the last batch of Alibaba shares that I am buying to mitigate the risk of holding excessive Alibaba stocks.

Parting thoughts
I am looking forward to receiving further dividends in December 2021 for further re-investments. Let's see how the market reacts next week and whether there is further blood-bath due to the Omicron variant. However, personally, I do not think Omicron will be a repeat of the 2020 March crash as current vaccine surely still must have some effects (despite reduced efficacy) on the new COVID strain and chances of world-wide lockdown again is slim. I will continue buying in piecemeal to exploit the current market decline.