Wilmar disappointing first quarter result1Q12.

Extract of Wilmar's announcement on SGX: 

"Singapore, May 10, 2012 – Wilmar International Limited (“Wilmar” or “the Group”),
Asia’s leading agribusiness group, posted a 34% decrease in net profit to US$255.9
million for the quarter ended March 31, 2012 (“1Q2012”). The decline in net profit was
largely due to lower Oilseeds & Grains margins. However, the Group enjoyed robust
earnings growth from Palm & Laurics, Consumer Products and Plantations & Palm Oil
Mills."

Interestingly, many analysts and investors claimed that they were extremely disappointed with the results which falls below their expectation. Hence the share prices plummet from S$4.80 to S$4.060 within 2 days.....a billion dollar written off market capitalization....oouch!

Once I saw the price at S$4.070, it became a no brainer and I immediately bought 1 more lot of Wilmar on 11 May 2012 (Friday). Market overreacted over the Oilsees and Grains decline as well as loss from sugar processing. True enough, the price rebounded upwards to close off at S$4.140. Should price drop below S$4.00, it may be time to accumulate more Wilmar stocks.

Analysts revised beta due to lower margin to increase risk profile. Targeted price range from S$4.60 to S$4.85 according to these experts. My own analysis points towards S$5.20. Anyway, think that the probability of upside seems greater at this one year all time low price of as low as S$4.060.