Keppel Ltd Overvalued After Recent Rally and Confusing Final Dividends Reported In Media?

Keppel Ltd is my current top performing holdings with a return of 104% after the recent strong rally in share price. Previously, a number of social media folks were very skeptical of its new strategy to focus on developing its recurring income business. Also many condemned the high leverage employed by Keppel Ltd. Finally, this year turned up extremely well for Keppel Ltd. I attribute it mainly to the "Piyush" effect...haha. Good job overall by the Senior Management team of Keppel Ltd! It is good that the market has finally acknowledged the transformation by Keppel Ltd into an asset light fund management model with more stable recurring income. I have sold off around 25% of my holdings to lock in part of the capital gain. Do I think that Keppel Ltd still a good buy at this juncture? I will address this in the final part of my post. For now, I have a whinge against the dividend announcement that seems a bit confusing and will talk about this issue first.

1. Final Dividends Is S$0.47?

The ambiguous dividends totality in most mdedia is further compounded by the Straits Time and Business Times that state that Keppel Ltd has declared a "final dividend" of S$0.47 per share. So is this referring to the overall total dividends for FY2025 or the 2nd half FINAL dividend tranche?

Extract from Business Times

As it turns out, the news media have been rather loose in their reporting these days. S$0.47 per share should not be crafted as "Final Dividend". Rather, I think the correct wording should be "TOTAL dividend" for FY2025. This is because S$0.47 per share of "final" dividends reported by the Straits Times and Business Times actually comprises of an interim cash dividend of S$0.15 per share that was already paid out in August 2025- we thus have no choice but to deep dive into the announcements by Keppel Ltd.

Extract from Keppel Ltd Full Year Presentation Deck

As seen above from Keppel's presentation deck, the "Final" dividends is actually only S$0.19 per share and not S$0.47 per share. Hence total normalised dividends pay out rate is only S$0.34 per share (interim S$0.15+ final S$0.19). Also, market price of Keppel Ltd is S$12.86 per share as at the close of trading of 16 February 2026 (Monday). This translates to a normalised annual dividend yield of 2.6%. This is actually an extremely low yield without the special dividends. 

2. Special Dividends Clarification

Also, the main stream media has been rather ambiguous on the nature of the S$0.13 per share of "special" dividends. As per above extract from Keppel's presentation deck, the S$0.13 is made up of 2 components:

(i) Cash dividend of S$0.02 per share and

(ii) Dividend in-Specie of 1 KREIT unit for every 9 Keppel shares held which is equivalent to S$0.11 per share. This valuation is based on Keppel REIT's closing price of S$0.98 per unit on 3 February 2026 as well as Keppel's issued share capital of 1,801,659,827 shares as at 31 December 2025. I would think that the valuation of this from retail investor point of view would be the upcoming ex-dividend date whereby the legal obligation has been fully transferred to the hands of shareholders hence it may not be really S$0.98 per unit at that juncture. As a matter of fact, its price as at 16 February 2026 has already dropped to S$0.95 per unit.

2A. Illustrative Example of Quantum of Special Dividends

(i) Assuming one is holding on to 9,900 Keppel Ltd shares. The final dividends due after AGM approval will be S$1,881 (S$0.19 per share X 9,900 shares).

(ii) Also to further illustrate how the dividend in specie works, assuming the same 9,900 Keppel Ltd shares. So the investor would be entitled to 1,100 units of Keppel REIT (9,900 shares divided by 9). So the special dividend in specie would be S$1,078 (1,100 units X S$0.98 per unit). Add on the special cash dividends in such case, one would get cash special dividends of S$198. Hence total special dividend awarded will be S$1,296 in special cash dividend and dividend in-specie.

Total upcoming final dividends in such scenario will thus be S$3,177. 

3. Ex-dividends and Payout Dates.

The ex-dividend date for the final dividend is 27 April 2026 while the pay-out date is on 8 May 2026. So, take note of these key dates if you are an investor of Keppel Ltd.

4. Parting Thoughts- Keppel Ltd Still A Good Buy?
Personally, I will not buy anymore of Keppel Ltd at this juncture as I think that it is overvalued from a dividend investing strategy perspective. Its normalised dividend yield of 2.6%, as previously discussed in point 1 above, is too low for me at its current market price of S$12.68 per share. My entry price for this investment is around S$6.45. I do not think that there is any fundamental change since my first purchase as the senior management of Keppel Ltd has already announced their new strategy of fund management and focus on recurring income 2 years ago. The only exception is that Piyush has joined the board of Keppel Ltd but take note that  it is a non-executive role and this seemed to be the main reason folks are chasing after Keppel Ltd. This is probably due to Piyush's stellar track record in transforming DBS before leaving it and joining Keppel Ltd- I called it the Piyush's effect.

Last but not least, the new FY2026 seems to have already another "special" dividend guaranteed for next year payout. This is because the S$1 billion cash sales proceed of M1 will only be counted towards FY2026 and Keppel Ltd management has mentioned that they will be returning back part of all successful monetisation efforts (10%-15%) in the form of special dividends to shareholders. 

Ok, that's all folks! Have a great week ahead! Happy Lunar New Year to All! Huat Arh!

(P.S: Please see my previous investment thesis on Keppel Ltd back in 2024- Click link to post here)

Trump To Bully Canada Into Submission To Its Will.

Donald Trump continues his crazy antics to whack Canada over its decision to lower trade tariffs with China and moving ever closer to its Asian rival. Now Trump is blocking the opening of the new Howe International Bridge, which connects Detroit and Windsor and using it as leverage against Mark Carney. Interestingly (according to Guardian), back in the 1930s, the US did draw up a plan to invade Canada: It will kick off with the seizing of a strategically valuable port city. US soldiers would then sever undersea cables, destroy bridges and rail lines to paralyze infrastructure. Major Canadian cities on the shores of lakes and rivers would be captured in order to blunt any civilian resistance.

1. Moving Military Defence Away from Solely US

Due to an essential need for advanced conventional (non-nuclear) under-ice capabilities, Ottawa seems to be prioritising building of twelve new units of submarines as well as maintenance package (37 billion Euros package) to non-US ship building firms.  It will select either South Korea or Germany vendors to deliver the boats. This clearly demonstrates a desire to avoid over-relianceof defence-industrial dependency on US and a sign of deteriorating relationship between US and Canada.  

2. Will US Invade Canada Given How Egoistic Donald Trump is and also Carney's Refusal to Submit His Country To Bullying Tactics?

Honestly, I hope this does not happen else it will be very bad for the global economies. Given that Donald Trump has only a few more years before his presidential tenure end and also the upcoming mid-term US election that is strongly anticipated to change the current political landscape, there is an extremely low probability that war will breakout. 

 

Parting Thoughts

Mark Carney may turn up to be one of the greatest Prime Minister of Canada who refused to let his country be bullied into submission to Trump's demands. His standing ovation speech at the World Economic Forum where he called for "middle powers, such as his own, to work together to counter the rise of hard power and the great power rivalry, in order to build a more cooperative, resilient world", riled Trump badly and he is all-out to hustle Carney. 

Opportunity Arises From the 2nd Major Bitcoin Crash- Margin Call and US$2 Trillion Tumble in Crypto Market.

Somebody told me that Bitcoin ("BTC") is the new digital "Gold". Well, it turns out to be extremely volatile and a bad store of value. From its high of US$125K just a few months back in October 2025, it had plummeted to US$61K at one point in time on 6th February 2026. The most shocking thing is I just bought S$1K worth of BTC at US$78K a few days ago on 3rd February 2026. Suddenly, it just dived further, I made another small nibble of S$500 when BTC hits US$72K and another S$500 at US$63K on 5th February and 6th February respectively. I think I have another S$500 entered at various prices from US$80K to US$90K during my account opening earlier this year with a crypto exchange approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ("MAS").  So in total, I have put up around S$2,500 in capital to speculate in BTC. 

Will Bitcoin Hit Zero?

Personally, I though that the fair value of BTC is zero. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely to ever hit zero. The simple reason is that BTC has come to be embraced by the mainstream financial institution and many governments. In January 2024, the US SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs as financial products. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs has also included BTC as part of their wealth management products. Hence institutional adoption in some way protects BTC from falling to zero. But no one knows exactly how much it will plunge further given the extreme pessimism in market sentiment. 

Additionally, many are waiting for MicroStrategy- which uses leverage to purchase BTC- to collapse. The domino effect if triggered will lead to some very ugly repercussion on global economies. 

Personal Thoughts

Since the flash crash in October 2025, crypto has once again suffered another rout in 2026. I thought that there is now an opening for those like myself who wants to diversify one's traditional investment portfolios into crypto assets.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust Mixed Q3 Results For 2025/2026.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust ("MPACT") reported a higher Q3 distribution relatively to prior year. Nonetheless, its Revenue and net property income actually decrease. The issue with MPACT is still the same, that is, its crown jewel Singapore asset- Vivocity- continues to shine brightly while its overseas investment properties are still facing headwinds. Its occupancy rate as a consolidated group is only 88.1%.  So if Singapore Vivocity is currently 100% occupied, one can easily see that its overseas assets performance has been nothing short of a disaster- Japan and China properties are at occupancy rate of only 73.1% and 83.6% respectively as seen per below screenshot:

Occupancy Rates Breakdown

1. Other Key Overseas Property-Festival Walk (Hong Kong)

While Festival Walk continued to show resilience in its occupancy rate at a high 98% for past 2 years, its rental reversion continued to reflect a negative trend of <-10%> for Q3.  

Negative Reversion Again for Q3

Additionally, MPACT also will be completing its divestment of the office component of Festival Walk by February 2026. I think that this is the right step for MPACT which is struggling in its financial performance due to its overseas investment properties.

2. Key Financial Highlights

Key Highlights

Q3 Financials

As per earlier discussed, MPACT Q3 results are a tad disappointing in terms of operations. The good news here is that its Finance Expenses has lowered significantly by +10.2%. This is a +S$6Mil savings in terms of finance expenses for a quarter. Saying that, MPACT is not yet out of the woods. Its overseas properties are dragging down its overall financial performance. It maybe time to just divest its China and Japan properties. As for Hong Kong retail, I think that Festival Walk should see a gradual slow down in its negative rental reversion given that its economy is finally seeing the lights at the end of the tunnel. 

Parting Thoughts

Overall, I thought that it is a decent quarter for MPACT especially with higher distributions to unit-holders despite the not so good overseas performance. Given its Net Asset Value of S$1.75 per unit vs the market price of S$1.46 per unit, there is a still a 16.5% discount to NAV. MPACT should continue to diversify its overseas assets in order to realise more intrinsic value for unit-holders.

Hong Kong Phoenix Rising From The Ash- Doubling Down on Link REIT.

I thought that Hong Kong seems to be doing extremely well again despite the slump that persist post COVID and the weakening local retail scene due to the exodus of HongKongers shoppers going to Shenzhen to wine, dine SPA and shopping etc. Good news is that Hong Kong has recorded strong growth in its wealth management business. In 2024, cross-border wealth booked in the city surged by $231 billion to $2.7 trillion, putting Hong Kong is thus on par with Switzerland, the long-time leader in cross-border wealth management, according to Boston Consulting Group Inc.’s latest Global Wealth Report. The surge was the largest in the world that year. From then on, its wealth management continued to flourish and grow from 2025 and even now. Hong Kong also remained a vital gateway to Chinese mainland due to its deep talent pool and long time experience in the wealth management sector. As such, I think that the current slump in its retail and commercial property markets should be bottoming soon with revival in its economy engine. 

1. Portfolio Restructuring and Doubling Down on Link REIT.

It has been scary indeed to see the plunge in rental rates in Hong Kong. My Hong Kong work colleagues were telling me all sort of horror stories over the past 2 years on empty shops and sharp drop in commercial rental. However, with the surge in HKEX IPOs over the past year as well as the news on its rapid growth in Wealth Management sector, I would think that green shoots have appeared and that Hong Kong's commercial property slump will desist and rise again. I have began taking profits from my investment portfolios (sold off all my remaining Ping'An Insurance shares and part of my Keppel Ltd stocks after 78% profits surge) and reallocating the funds into Link REIT as well as Amova STC Asia REIT ETF (this also contains HK Link REIT on top of SG REITs). 

2. Link REIT

Latest full-year financial interim  results showed NAV per unit at around HK$61.19 at 30 Sep 2025. Market price as at 23 January 2026 is HKD35.48 per unit. It is thus trading at a 42% to its NAV.  Interestingly, pre-COVID days, Link REIT was trading at around NAV per unit. As such, I believe that there is potential for another 20%-30% capital appreciation. Current distribution yield hovers around 7.4% (as per StockCafe) which also makes it extremely attractive. I am also looking forward to Link REIT IPO of its Singapore Shopping malls.  

Parting Thoughts

I have built up around S$80K of Link REIT HKEX position as at  23 January 2026 (Friday) in view of a potential 20%-30% capital appreciation within the next 2 years and a potential IPO of its Singapore shopping malls. Its high distribution yield of 7.4% is also very tempting. Anyway, the above are my personal thoughts.  

Trump Tariff Trade War Continues Over US Grand Ambition To Annex Greenland.

Wow, today's SGX blue chip stocks was a sea of mostly red. Market sentiment may have been affected by the recent threats from US to its European allies. The situation has escalated with the European Union ("EU") preparing a retaliatory EUR93 billion package of tariffs against the United States of America should it go ahead to increase the import tariffs on EU nations- Trump has earlier threaten that he will impose the additional Tariff on EU nations until they support the annexation of Greenland. What a mess it has been! Again, the threat of global inflation from sky high import tariffs maybe back and if interest rates starts spiralling upwards again, it will inevitably decimate the SREIT recovery.  

Prime Minister Set in Motion Internal Conflict Within Workers' Party By Asking For A New Nomination For new "Leader of The Opposition".

Just sharing my personal thoughts on the latest development from the Singapore Parliament. It has become more and more interesting as the fiasco continues. Our Prime Minister has moved on to remove Pritam Singh as the "Leader of the Opposition" in Singapore Parliament after the dreaded motion. Then, he went on to ask the Workers' Party ("WP") to nominate "another suitable" candidate. I don't think the Workers' Party will accept this post or nomination. Accepting this will mean challenging the WP veterans of Pritam Singh and Sylvia Lim and lead to lots of internal conflicts. Nonetheless, this is a brilliant move by the PAP folks....well....there is always a chance that WP might erupt into an internal fight over who should lead the party and then self-disintegrate.   

The Margin Investing Series Part 2: Beware of the Margin Ratio and the Dreaded Margin Call.

 

Hi folks, this is the Margin Investing Series Part 2- Continuation from my previous Part 1 Video.

DigiCore DC REIT Not As Stable As It Seemed-Beware 3rd Crisis Since IPO.

Let me be clear on this, the announcement of Linton Hall going to be finally leased out end of 2026 on January 5th, 2026 announcement does not absolve the inherent challenges faced by unit-holders holding on to DigiCore DC REIT ("DCREIT"). I thought that DCREIT management has been rather misleading in their previous December 2025 results presentation. The occupancy rate as per above shows a 98% occupancy giving most stakeholders am extremely false impression of the true status of occupancy. There is a very tiny footnote at the bottom of this powerpoint that states that the actual occupancy rate of DCREIT is only 81% instead of 98%. They have excluded Linton Hall during the last presentation, that is undergoing refurbishment post the exit of a major tenant around mid-2025 that contributed around 10%-11% of rental income. I thought that DCREIT management ought to be more transparent in its dealing with unit-holders given that it had already underwent a few crisis post IPO such as the Sungard and Cyxtera bankruptcy/restructuring cases that led to a significant plunge in distribution to unit-holders.

Linton Hall Will Only Be Backfilled from December 1, 2026- (1.5 years vacant)

Back in 2023, I had taken up a position in DCREIT when its price plunged to below US$0.50 as I had taken a more optimistic view of its business. I had then bought and exited half of it with about +22% realised capital gain but keeping the other half was a mistake as its traded price remained in doldrum for the next few years and now, there a 3rd incident of another operational issue with a major tenant exiting in mid-2025 and DCREIT's team is only able to backfill the space from December 1, 2026  (as per the latest SGX announcement). Wow, this is almost a 1.5 years of vacancy! 

From DCREIT track record over the past 3 years, this REIT has proven that it is not stable at all. It has problem building up sufficient size for adequate diversification of key tenant exit risk as well as credit risk. 

Parting Thoughts

Over time, DCREIT’s market price has fallen significantly below its IPO level of US$0.88 per unit to the recent US$0.545 as at January 6, 2025 (Monday). This represents a whopping decline of around <-38%> relative to its IPO price. I have thus exited all my investment holdings in DCREIT back in December 2025 due to persistent under performance and bad management based on my personal view. Additionally, the AI craze maybe a bubble that will eventually pop and I am not sure whether DCREIT with its really bad track record can survive such crisis.

Crazy Donald Trump Kidnapped President of Venezuela- Will Global Stock Markets Tanked This Week?

The million dollar question today is how much will the stock market crash? Donald Trump has once again screwed up the already declining world order by attacking Venezuela and then kidnapping its president. US Delta force executed a dramatic "man grabbing" operations from the Venezuela presidential residency and then spirited him back to US to face drug trafficking charges. 

The irony is not lost when Russia condemned US for its aggressive action against Venezuela. The statement from Russia foreign affairs: “This morning, the United States carried out an act of armed aggression against Venezuela. This causes deep concern and condemnation,” Russia said in a statement from its Foreign Ministry. The pretexts cited to justify such actions are unfounded. Ideologized hostility has prevailed over practical pragmatism and over a willingness to build relations based on trust and predictability.”. It is strange that Russia made the aforesaid comments five years into the nation’s own war in Ukraine. Saying that, the ironic double standard also falls back on Donald Trump who has been against the war in Ukraine started by Russia. It's a bloody mess and is not at all good for the global stock markets. 

Parting Thoughts:

Looks like whoever has the military muscle can now dictate and do what they want with other countries and subject others to their will. Even folks in China has commented on forum that perhaps China should take a leaf out of Donald Trump's playbook and kidnap the President of Taiwan by using the same military operations. 

Central Provident Fund Personal Updates 2026- Moving Towards Enhanced Retirement Sum Using Special Account.

 

It is again the time of the year to document my CPF retirement goal update. My special account has grown from previous year balances of S$266K to S$286K as of Jan 1, 2026. Note that I will only be sharing my CPF Special Account here as I find the balances in the CPF Ordinary Account ("OA") and Medisave account wholly irrelevant for my retirement income planning. Reason being that for CPF OA, amount here will eventually be fully utilised to pay down my housing mortgage as I do not plan to work till age 65 years old and targeting an early retirement. As for Medisave, my parents do not have much medical insurance coverage and I think that I will most likely exhaust all the balances here into their future healthcare. I have seen my cousins' Medisave being drawn down to zero for medical expenses for medical payment on behalf of their parents in similar circumstances.

Interest Income

For 2025, I received an interest income of S$11,428 from the CPF Board for my Special Account which was credited on Jan 1, 2026.

Parting Thoughts

If I do not get retrenched by my boss this year, then most likely, my CPF Special Account will hit the milestone of S$300K and a passive annual interest income of S$12K from the year of 2027. 

Last but not least, do take note that CPF Life payout only commenced at age 65. For those who intend to early retire at age 55, one would need to think of how to generate other sources of passive income to sustain the decade between age 55 years old to 64 years old before the CPF Life payout kicks in. 

Investment Portfolios Updates (31 Dec 2025) - Net Investment of S$930K and Projected Annualised Passive Income of S$49K.

Wishing all a Happy New Year and good health always! I guess it is not too bad that my net investment increased slightly to S$930K despite the decline in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange over the last 2 months. I am gearing up to hopefully cross the S$1Mil net investment mark by the end of 2026. This will be my 2026 new year resolution. Gross investments have so far crossed the S$1.2Mil milestone and I will be gradually paying down my margin loan using the passive income generated from the Margin Portfolio. 

1. Portfolio 1- Stocks Held in SGX Central Depository 

Not much changes to update here except that there is an upcoming rights issue for Keppel REIT. I may subscribe to a few units to try to round-up the units on hand to the nearest hundred for ease of future sales. I do not like the current rights issue which is very anti-loyal shareholders/unit-holders. There are enough write-up on this rights exercise by various finance influencers regarding Keppel REIT so I will not dwell on it-personally, I can only say that the management of Keppel REIT ought to be shot.  

2. Portfolio 2- Margin Purchased Securities
(Note: My margin purchased securities has grown to a sufficient scale to sustain itself and can pay off annual financing charges as well as to gradually pay down the margin loan through the dividends generated.) 

I think I need to stop buying HKEX stocks like JD here. The undervaluation in the China/HK market is too tempting and simply too hard to resist. Saying that, as aforesaid mentioned in the beginning highlights, I hope that I will have the discipline to just let the dividends pay down the debt so as to guard against potential spike in financing cost in the event that inflation went out of control again. I have no doubt that mass money printing by the US Fed is on the table again. 

3. Portfolio 3 (with Tiger Brokers and MooMoo) 

(Venture into higher risk as well as capital growth stocks here)

I have sold off my US stock of United Healthcare Group after realising a small profit. I managed to get 300 shares of BYD at around the HK$94 per share price during the recent correction in HKEX. The price of BYD rebounded around 5% after BYD released a major software updates (God's Eye) to its vehicles which boost the appeal of BYD-made EV cars. After Christmas, the price of BYD went up and I thus decided adding on and instead went into accumulation of Link REIT which has dropped from HKD40 per unit to approximately HKD35 per unit. 

4. Portfolio 4 (Endowus Unit Trusts & Other Investments)

I have injected an additional S$10K-split equally among bonds and equities- into unit trusts in late December 2025. The pricing in this portfolio is at cost and does not reflect the upsides of around S$5K capital appreciation of the various funds. 

The surprise here is that the precious metal fund suddenly shot up by 20% within 2 months.

I currently have no time to do any market price true-up adjustment as Stock-Cafe does not have an auto-update feature covering unit-trusts- so it is simply too tedious to do manual update on all the individual funds. Will just leave it given that most of the funds I am holding onto are fixed income nature. 

Parting Thoughts

I will be adding a new portfolio 5 for Crypto investment if the amount starts to become material and go past S$5K. Currently, I am holding on to a tiny stake in Bitcoins when they drop below US$90K. Ok, that's all for today. Bye Folks and have a great weekend ahead! :)