What a week it had been! Iran shot down a US F-15 fighter jet and then there was the subseqent dramatic rescue of the downed aircrew by US Commandos deep in Iran's territory. Strangely, Trump and his Secretary of War (formerly Secretary of Defense before the renaming of this post) have terminated a number of US generals in the midst of the war with Iran. Rumour has it that these were the generals that were against the ground offensive initiative by Trump and Pete Hegseth. In the meantime the vital oil channel, the Straits of Hormuz remains shut off with Iran only allowing a few ships to pass through it.
Deadline up to Tuesday for Straits of Hormuz to Reopen.
Trump's gave new deadlines (yes, keep repeating the same thingy) for the opening of Straits of Hormuz for Monday (6th April) and then now Tuesday (7th April) else the US will unleash hell on Iran. Trump had told Iran to “open the f***in’ Strait” or face “living in hell” in an extraordinary swear-laden rant on Sunday.
But, I don't think the Iranians will budge. In fact, the Iranians have stated that they will only consider stopping the war if there is a change in regime in US, that is, a government without Donald Trump before they will negotiate.
European Union and Other Allies Cutting Deal With Iran Without US
Macron, the president of France, has made a good speech recently. He said that countries should avoid dependence on China's “dominance” and exposure to what he called the “unpredictability” of the United States.
In the meantime, many countries have been cutting deals with Iran to allow some of their ships to pass through unharmed in the Straits of Hormuz.
Additionally, UK has convened a meeting of over 40 countries from every continent of the world, as well as key international organisations including the International Maritime Organisation and the European Union regarding the Straits of Hormuz closure by Iran. The key points being discussed:
(a) Increase international diplomatic pressure, including through the UN, to send clear and co-ordinated messages to Iran to permit unimpeded transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz and to comprehensively reject the imposition of tolls on vessels which seek to pass through.
(b) Explore co-ordinated economic and political measures, such as sanctions, to bear down on Iran if the Strait remains closed.
(c) Work together with the International Maritime Organisation to secure the release of thousands of ships and sailors trapped in the Strait and get shipping moving again.
(d) Joint arrangements to support greater market and operational confidence. This includes working with shipping operators and industry bodies to ensure coherent and timely information sharing.
Parting Thoughts- Investing During War Time
I think that there are signs of improvement in the global oil disruption from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran with many countries starting to kick off solutions discussion. As such I will be making some additional investment into equities this week. Saying that, no one knows exactly what the unhinged Donald Trump will do next and global markets may crash further. Good to keep some dry powder in such an event. Ok, that's all from me today. Have great week ahead!
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