End of Project Freedom In Less Than A Day by Donald Trump and US.

This is really incredulous. Donald Trump's Project Freedom using US War ships to escort ships out of the Straits of Hormuz ended in less than one day after its announcement. The missile attacks on US Warships and commercial ships moving through the Straits of Hormuz appear to have led to continued high risks of severe damage and potential loss of lives. In a face saving moment, Donald Trump has paused the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, by asserting “great progress” is being made towards a “complete and final agreement with the representatives of Iran”. So the operation will be halted for a "short period" to see whether a final agreement materialise.

Poor UAE is the greatest victim impacted by Donald Trump's "Project Freedom". The oil port and other facilities of UAE got attacked by missiles and drones fired by Iran as retaliation against Project Freedom. 

US–Iran Ceasefire Or War: A Fragile Pause and What Comes Next.

The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a tense middle phase—not quite war, not quite peace. A ceasefire exists on paper, but clashes and economic pressure continue, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. At the centre: a proposed peace deal. Iran has put forward a multi-point plan, and the US has responded with tougher conditions. Tehran is now evaluating that response.

1. The Core Disagreement

The US wants: security first (reopen shipping, limit nuclear activity)

Iran wants: sanctions lifted first, then negotiations

That mismatch is why talks are slow and uncertain.

2. Most Likely Outcomes

I think that there are 4 likely scenarios here:

(i) Frozen conflict (most likely)

A shaky ceasefire holds, but tensions persist and shipping remains risky.

(ii) Partial deal (likely)

Both sides agree only on safe passage in Hormuz—without solving bigger issues. This will only materialise if Donald Trump got a sudden stroke from old age or eating too much McDonalds. 

(iii) Full deal (least likely)

A broader agreement with sanctions relief and security guarantees.

(iv) Escalation risk (almost present)

Talks collapse and conflict resumes.

Ships Stuck And Waiting to Clear the Straits

3. Flashpoint: US Escorting Ships

The US is now escorting vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz—a move which Iran views as provocative that is a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Possible Iranian Responses are as follow:

(i) Restraint: Allow passage to keep talks alive;

(ii) Harassment (most likely): Drones, patrol boats, limited attacks;

(iii) Diplomatic escalation: Claim ceasefire violation;

(iv) Direct clash (high risk and low probability): Engage U.S. naval forces;

Parting Thoughts

The most probable path forward, unfortunately, seems to be a prolonged conflict—where diplomacy continues, tensions simmer, and the risk of escalation never fully disappears. 

Iran Soften Stand To Revise Peace Offer-Donald Trump Chu Pattern Again!

Iran has soften and offered US a deal to open the Straits of Hormuz and talk about disposal of enriched uranium in a subsequent phase. Donald Trump, the King of USA, then angrily reject the offer as he wants the nuclear issue to be tackled upfront while he holds the US Naval blockage as a counter leverage that is hurting the economy of its government. The King has thus demanded Iran to revise their offer. 

I guess it is not too bad that Iran seems to have proposed this new offer relative to their previous stance of totally avoiding the previous peace talk. I think we are going to see the light at the end of the tunnel soon. Hang in there folks!

Indonesia Imitating Iran- Charging Ships Toll For Use of the Straits of Malacca.

Indonesia’s Finance Minister, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, recently "floated" the idea of charging ships transit fees through the Strait of Malacca as he was inspired by Iran's maneuverer off the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently, the Indonesia government wanted to try their hands on playing ruffians and imposing "protection money" to boost much needed treasury funds to cover their deficits. The Smart Aleck even tried to drag Singapore and Malaysia into the extortion ring by framing the idea as something that would require coordination with Singapore and Malaysia, rather than a unilateral Indonesian move. Any one can tell that Purbaya is just trying to share the political fallout from US, China, EU etc and to avoid Indonesia appearing as the sole wicked nation that is causing another disruption to global trade. 

1. Why the Proposal Caused Alarm

The Malacca Strait carries roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of global seaborne trade. Critical examples:

- China’s energy imports;

- Japan and South Korea’s shipping;

- Singapore’s port economy;-

- ASEAN trade

Any toll or restriction would likely:

(a) Raise shipping costs

(b) Increase insurance rates

(c) Trigger diplomatic backlash

(d) Potentially violate international maritime law

2. Regional Response

Our Singapore foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishna, jumped out immediately to oppose this stupid idea. Malaysia also showed little support and reinforced that the Strait is governed by UNCLOS transit passage rules, and not national tolling rights.

Additionally, Australia and major trading nations also quickly voiced their concern. Overall, Global markets viewed this suggestion as a destabilizing precedent.

3. Final Development

However, Jakarta subsequently quickly changed their mind after testing water and finding heavy criticism worldwide. They quickly clarified that Indonesia has no formal plan to impose tolls and remains committed to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which protects freedom of navigation in international straits. It is extremely disappointing that while the US-Iran war remains unresolved, Indonesia has tried to stir up more chaos in order to profit from it.

Countdown to US-Iran Conflict Ended-Donald Trump Tried to Use Nuclear Code on Iran.

Amidst the never ending US-Iran war, a recent controversial allegation from ex-CIA analyst, Larry Johnson, has surfaced suggesting that Donald Trump had sought to use nuclear codes during the war and that this was stopped by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, who opposed the move. Not sure whether this is purposely leaked out fake news by US side to pressurise Iran into accepting a peace deal with the agreement to handover enriched Uranium. 

Anyway, Donald Trump has just extended the ceasefire deadline indefinitely. Trump further mentioned that this is to give Iran more time to come up with a revised peace proposal for the US to review. This is quite silly, given that Trump has threaten that he will resume bombing Iran and will not extend the ceasefire deadline. To be honest, I was surprised by Trump's move as he is quite egoistic so to extend ceasefire indefinitely is a major concession and good faith towards de-escalation of conflict. 

Nevertheless, grave danger still remain with the Straits of Hormuz closed and US naval blockage of Iranian ports. The flames of war may still be re-ignited instantly given Iran's view that nuclear enrichment is their sovereign rights that no one can take-away. 

Why Donald Trump Will Cut Down US Military Spending To Reduce US Budget Deficit.

The Government of the United States of America is technically bankrupt. For more than 2 decades, the US deficit has been getting from bad to worse. For illustrative, look at the recent 5 years (2021-2025) whereby US has been running a ballooning budget deficit of US$1.38 trillion to US$2.77 trillion. For 2026, Donald Trump is expected to create an all time high (since COVID) deficit of over US$2 trillion with the US war “adventure" in Iran- this will be a whopping  12% of GDP. The failure and upcoming refund of the illegal import tariffs is only going to worsen the deficit. Its heavy spending on healthcare (Medicare and Medicaid) as well as social security by being a welfare state are placing huge burden on its public finance. 

Donald Trump To Cut Down US Military Presence in Europe and Asia

Already, we are seeing Trump using the excuse of the Iran War and no assistance from its European allies to “re-evaluate” its military assets deployed in Europe. I believe US will gradually reduce the number of US overseas military bases as well as its overseas military personnel to reduce unsustainable military spending so as to rein in the deficit. While US is still a powerful nation, it is no longer a “super power” like it used to be immediately post World War 2.  

Donald Trump has also succeed in isolating America from its allies by pursuing (i) import tariffs (that economics 101 lesson has clearly stated the negative repercussion) against all nations and (ii) withdrawal of military resources from allied nations to prioritise fighting the war in Iran. 

Parting Thoughts

The MAGA movement led by Trump seems to be doing more harm than good to US and as a matter of fact, it is hastening the US decline as a global super power. We are now starting to see the decline of the US dollars starting with the cracks appearing in the US petrol dollar regime. 

Trump and Iran Need To Sit Down To Talk And Stop The Senseless Fighting and Blockage of Hormuz.

Donald Trump act blur again. How can a ceasefire not include his best friend from Israel which just intensified its bombing on Lebanon? Iran also desperate until it decides to weaponize the Straits of Hormuz against the whole world to exert pressure on the Global Economies. Totally no respect for the Law of the Sea for international navigation through straits. Now it even wants to blackmail countries into paying toll for safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz. How is this different from piracy?

US and Israel started this war and are now finding it extremely painful to end it. Makes one wonder what are their real military objectives in the first place? Iran is still shooting ballistic missiles and launching drones non-stop at everybody- they seemed to have an endless supply of them hidden deep underground. Many ordinary folks in Iran and Lebanon have been killed in this war, it is time to end the violence and senseless bloodshed. Donald Trump need to wake up and stop his Art of the Deal nonsense and negotiate a peace settlement in good faith.

Personally, I think that Trump had already TACO on this painful war that is going to make his life extremely miserable once his Republican party lose big during the upcoming mid-term election. Nevertheless, US not continuing the war does not mean that this war is over since the Straits of Hormuz is now being used by the Iranians to restrict the amount of oil that gets out. For local holding onto SREITs, the rally from Q4 2025 is gone and now back to square one. Interest rates will also start to rise again as evident from recent hints given by the US Federal Reserve folks.  

Donald Trump Unhinged Lunatic- The Opening of Straits of Hormuz Deadline Or Destruction of Iran?

What a week it had been! Iran shot down a US F-15 fighter jet and then there was the subseqent dramatic rescue of the downed aircrew by US Commandos deep in Iran's territory. Strangely, Trump and his Secretary of War (formerly Secretary of Defense before the renaming of this post) have terminated a number of US generals in the midst of the war with Iran. Rumour has it that these were the generals that were against the ground offensive initiative by Trump and Pete Hegseth. In the meantime the vital oil channel, the Straits of Hormuz remains shut off with Iran only allowing a few ships to pass through it. 

Deadline up to Tuesday for Straits of Hormuz to Reopen.

Trump's gave new deadlines (yes, keep repeating the same thingy) for the opening of Straits of Hormuz for Monday (6th April) and then now Tuesday (7th April) else the US will unleash hell on Iran. Trump  had told Iran to “open the f***in’ Strait” or face “living in hell” in an extraordinary swear-laden rant on Sunday.

But, I don't think the Iranians will budge. In fact, the Iranians have stated that they will only consider stopping the war if there is a change in regime in US, that is, a government without Donald Trump before they will negotiate.

European Union and Other Allies Cutting Deal With Iran Without US

Macron, the president of France, has made a good speech recently.  He said that countries should avoid dependence on China's “dominance” and exposure to what he called the “unpredictability” of the United States.

In the meantime, many countries have been cutting deals with Iran to allow some of their ships to pass through unharmed in the Straits of Hormuz.

Additionally, UK has convened a meeting of over 40 countries from every continent of the world, as well as key international organisations including the International Maritime Organisation and the European Union regarding the Straits of Hormuz closure by Iran. The key points being discussed:

(a) Increase international diplomatic pressure, including through the UN, to send clear and co-ordinated messages to Iran to permit unimpeded transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz and to comprehensively reject the imposition of tolls on vessels which seek to pass through.

(b) Explore co-ordinated economic and political measures, such as sanctions, to bear down on Iran if the Strait remains closed.

(c) Work together with the International Maritime Organisation to secure the release of thousands of ships and sailors trapped in the Strait and get shipping moving again.

(d) Joint arrangements to support greater market and operational confidence. This includes working with shipping operators and industry bodies to ensure coherent and timely information sharing.

Parting Thoughts- Investing During War Time

I think that there are signs of improvement in the global oil disruption from the closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran with many countries starting to kick off solutions discussion. As such I will be making some additional investment into equities this week. Saying that, no one knows exactly what the unhinged Donald Trump will do next and global markets may crash further. Good to keep some dry powder in such an event. Ok, that's all from me today. Have great week ahead!

Donald Trump Going For Ground Invasion Of Iran To Intimidate Submission.

Wow, Donald Trump has done it again with the activation of troops such as the elitie US 82nd Airborne division. I don't think Trump will be silly enough to invade the entire Iran as the soldiers needed to take-over a 90 million population will be too massive. Also, Iran is protected by the Zagros Mountains to the west and Elburz Mountains to the north, with massive central deserts creating a virtually impassable barrier. Instead, Trump maybe tempted to take-over the Kharg Island from Iran whereby 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through it. Kharg island sits offshore with waters deep enough to load product onto tankers known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which can hold around two million barrels. This will be a strategic move to choke off Iran's oil revenue by cutting off its oil exports in order to pressurise the government of Iran to accede to US demands such as opening the Straits of Hormuz for ships and tankers to pass through.

Anyway, if boots on the ground were indeed deployed by Trump, it heightens the chance of mass casualties and may just sink his remaining presidency term into oblivion. There are already "No Kings" protests & rallies in US. Global stocks also continue their free fall which will certainly worsen once news breakout of the ground invasion.  

In the meantime, oil prices continue to shoot past US$100 per barrel while Donald Trump continues to negotiate "directly and indirectly" (whatever that means) with himself, I mean Iran. 

Donald Trump's Art of the Deal- Using Lies To De-escalate the US-Iran War.

Trump says Iran and US ‘want to make a deal’ but Tehran says claims of talks are ‘fake news’. To be honest, we have to give credit to Donald Trump for making such bold statement of "good talk with Iran" which buys global stock markets and energy prices time from persistent unfavourable pricing movement. Also, by postponing attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, Trump can then extend another postponement of attacks on Iran which then gradually transit to total freeze of military action. This also saves his face....so I guess this is a smart move. We have seen him using such techniques in his tariff war against many countries previously. 

So guess the essence to the Donald Trump "Art of the Deal" is to make statements that are false in order to serve one's own agenda and self-interest? Not all world leaders have such thick skin to practice the Art of the Deal. 

Asian stock markets should rally today but the volatility is not over. So be careful folks! 

Donald Trump Blackmailing Iran With Opening of the Straits of Hormuz Or A Strike On Its Power Plants.

I am not sure whether Donald Trump is in the right frame of mind over his latest ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Straits of Hormuz within 48 hours or to face direct air strike of its power plants. I guess Iran will just simply fired ballistics missiles in retaliation at the power plant of all neighbouring gulf countries. What ever happened to the potential candidate for Nobel Prize for World Peace? With macho ego at stake, it looks like the Iran-US war is going to drag on for quite some time. 

The Donald Trump Madness- Attack Iran And Now Wants Allies and Other Nations To Clean His Backside.

What a mess the US war on Iran has become. Donald Trump attacked Iran without consulting its European and Asia Pacific Allies but now demand its allies to send warships to keep the Straits of Hormuz open to oil tankers and container ships. Trump is now furious with allies who rebuffed his call for help to secure the Straits of Hormuz. Personally, I thought it is strange that the mighty US seems to have miscalculated on Iran's willingness to weaponize the Straits of Hormuz. Perhaps US thought that by destroying the Navy of Iran, it would effectively remove the Iranian hold over the Straits of Hormuz. 

Donald Trump has now pulled in its allies into its never-ending war. The Europeans may have no choice but to help US clean up its backside lest Donald Trump threaten to end the defence pact under NATO. 

Let's hope the middle east conflict de-escalate soon before the whole world sank into global economic recession. It will interesting to see whether Singapore property market crash. 

Deal of the Century By Netflix- Free US$2.8 Billion Extra Income Into Its Pocket.

Initially, back in early December 2025, I thought that Netflix's inking of the acquisition of Warner Bros is done and dusted. Then subsequently, Paramount Skydance suddenly jumped in to offer an all cash tender offer at a higher US$110.9 billion. On February 26, 2026, the management of Warner Bros decided to go for the "superior" offer from Paramount Skydance and cancelled the deal with Netflix. As a result, Warner Bros paid Netflix US$2.8 billion for the cancellation. Netflix thus walked away from the acquisition deal and made US$2.8 billion instantly. This is super insane given that the losing bidder, Netflix, gets away with US$2.8 billion of cancellation fees paid on a back to back basis by its rival Paramount Skydance! 

Additionally, Paramount Skydance debt level of expected US$79 billion escalated to the roof after the win. It asserted that is had identified cost cutting synergy of US$6 billion. This seems to be cutting down on film making and TV serial resources with upcoming retrenchment exercises. Paramount Skydance also just announced a 4th quarter of widening net loss of <US$573Mil> for its 4th quarter ending 31 December 2025. 

Personally, I thought that Netflix senior management made a very wise decision not to up its offer and just walkaway. It can now sit at the side to watch the Paramount-Warner Bros integration saga unfurl and also observe the struggle by the winner with the enormous debt. There maybe opportunities for Netflix in a few years time to made a bid for some of the business that Paramount maybe forced to firesales if it is failed in its plan to turn profit.

Mr Loo Strikes Back At Kelvin Learns Investing and Boon Tee on Crash Buying Strategy!

The talk of our local town recently is on the "Crash Buying Strategy" advocated by Mr Loo from 1M65. Boon Tee started picking a bone with this strategy and then Kelvin Learns Investing started a similar video later on. Basically, they asserted that DCA or immediate lump sum investing offers better return to Mr Loo's assertion if one look back further into longer historical data like from 1981. Mr Loo later clapped back at the 2 young people for being "paper warriors" (纸上谈兵). Quite interesting investment strategies being discussed by the 3 of them. I have extracted the links below and the chronological order of events for those who are interested to know more about the saga as well as the pros and cons being discussed with regard to the "Crash Buying Strategy". 

1. The original Mr Loo's Live Video and Sharing of his Crash Buying System 

I Created A Powerful Crash Buying System! 2X Returns Within 10 years!

2.Boon Tee's Video on why he disagrees with Mr Loo:

Why I DISAGREE With Mr. Loo’s “Crash Buying” Strategy

3. Kelvin's Video on why he disagrees with Mr Loo:

I Tested Mr Loo’s Crash Buying Strategy — Here’s Where It Falls Short

4. Mr Loo Clapbacks at Boon Tee and Kelvin:

Crash Buying : Responding to Investment "Paper Warriors"

Parting Thoughts

Personally, I do not think that there is a magic formula for investing. Also, what happens in the past does not necessarily means it will also apply to the future. Also why Boon Tee's and Kelvin's remaining gang from BagHolder Pod went missing? Hmmm.....I will not be surprised if the 2 of them appeared together again with Chi Keng for another live YouTube show to talk about this "Crash Buying" saga to milk more views...haha...somemore perhaps with Mr Loo appearing as VIP guest again. Or will Mr Loo and them fall out because of this fiasco? 😕

Keppel Ltd Overvalued After Recent Rally and Confusing Final Dividends Reported In Media?

Keppel Ltd is my current top performing holdings with a return of 104% after the recent strong rally in share price. Previously, a number of social media folks were very skeptical of its new strategy to focus on developing its recurring income business. Also many condemned the high leverage employed by Keppel Ltd. Finally, this year turned up extremely well for Keppel Ltd. I attribute it mainly to the "Piyush" effect...haha. Good job overall by the Senior Management team of Keppel Ltd! It is good that the market has finally acknowledged the transformation by Keppel Ltd into an asset light fund management model with more stable recurring income. I have sold off around 25% of my holdings to lock in part of the capital gain. Do I think that Keppel Ltd still a good buy at this juncture? I will address this in the final part of my post. For now, I have a whinge against the dividend announcement that seems a bit confusing and will talk about this issue first.

1. Final Dividends Is S$0.47?

The ambiguous dividends totality in most mdedia is further compounded by the Straits Time and Business Times that state that Keppel Ltd has declared a "final dividend" of S$0.47 per share. So is this referring to the overall total dividends for FY2025 or the 2nd half FINAL dividend tranche?

Extract from Business Times

As it turns out, the news media have been rather loose in their reporting these days. S$0.47 per share should not be crafted as "Final Dividend". Rather, I think the correct wording should be "TOTAL dividend" for FY2025. This is because S$0.47 per share of "final" dividends reported by the Straits Times and Business Times actually comprises of an interim cash dividend of S$0.15 per share that was already paid out in August 2025- we thus have no choice but to deep dive into the announcements by Keppel Ltd.

Extract from Keppel Ltd Full Year Presentation Deck

As seen above from Keppel's presentation deck, the "Final" dividends is actually only S$0.19 per share and not S$0.47 per share. Hence total normalised dividends pay out rate is only S$0.34 per share (interim S$0.15+ final S$0.19). Also, market price of Keppel Ltd is S$12.86 per share as at the close of trading of 16 February 2026 (Monday). This translates to a normalised annual dividend yield of 2.6%. This is actually an extremely low yield without the special dividends. 

2. Special Dividends Clarification

Also, the main stream media has been rather ambiguous on the nature of the S$0.13 per share of "special" dividends. As per above extract from Keppel's presentation deck, the S$0.13 is made up of 2 components:

(i) Cash dividend of S$0.02 per share and

(ii) Dividend in-Specie of 1 KREIT unit for every 9 Keppel shares held which is equivalent to S$0.11 per share. This valuation is based on Keppel REIT's closing price of S$0.98 per unit on 3 February 2026 as well as Keppel's issued share capital of 1,801,659,827 shares as at 31 December 2025. I would think that the valuation of this from retail investor point of view would be the upcoming ex-dividend date whereby the legal obligation has been fully transferred to the hands of shareholders hence it may not be really S$0.98 per unit at that juncture. As a matter of fact, its price as at 16 February 2026 has already dropped to S$0.95 per unit.

2A. Illustrative Example of Quantum of Special Dividends

(i) Assuming one is holding on to 9,900 Keppel Ltd shares. The final dividends due after AGM approval will be S$1,881 (S$0.19 per share X 9,900 shares).

(ii) Also to further illustrate how the dividend in specie works, assuming the same 9,900 Keppel Ltd shares. So the investor would be entitled to 1,100 units of Keppel REIT (9,900 shares divided by 9). So the special dividend in specie would be S$1,078 (1,100 units X S$0.98 per unit). Add on the special cash dividends in such case, one would get cash special dividends of S$198. Hence total special dividend awarded will be S$1,296 in special cash dividend and dividend in-specie.

Total upcoming final dividends in such scenario will thus be S$3,177. 

3. Ex-dividends and Payout Dates.

The ex-dividend date for the final dividend is 27 April 2026 while the pay-out date is on 8 May 2026. So, take note of these key dates if you are an investor of Keppel Ltd.

4. Parting Thoughts- Keppel Ltd Still A Good Buy?
Personally, I will not buy anymore of Keppel Ltd at this juncture as I think that it is overvalued from a dividend investing strategy perspective. Its normalised dividend yield of 2.6%, as previously discussed in point 1 above, is too low for me at its current market price of S$12.68 per share. My entry price for this investment is around S$6.45. I do not think that there is any fundamental change since my first purchase as the senior management of Keppel Ltd has already announced their new strategy of fund management and focus on recurring income 2 years ago. The only exception is that Piyush has joined the board of Keppel Ltd but take note that  it is a non-executive role and this seemed to be the main reason folks are chasing after Keppel Ltd. This is probably due to Piyush's stellar track record in transforming DBS before leaving it and joining Keppel Ltd- I called it the Piyush's effect.

Last but not least, the new FY2026 seems to have already another "special" dividend guaranteed for next year payout. This is because the S$1 billion cash sales proceed of M1 will only be counted towards FY2026 and Keppel Ltd management has mentioned that they will be returning back part of all successful monetisation efforts (10%-15%) in the form of special dividends to shareholders. 

Ok, that's all folks! Have a great week ahead! Happy Lunar New Year to All! Huat Arh!

(P.S: Please see my previous investment thesis on Keppel Ltd back in 2024- Click link to post here)

Trump To Bully Canada Into Submission To Its Will.

Donald Trump continues his crazy antics to whack Canada over its decision to lower trade tariffs with China and moving ever closer to its Asian rival. Now Trump is blocking the opening of the new Howe International Bridge, which connects Detroit and Windsor and using it as leverage against Mark Carney. Interestingly (according to Guardian), back in the 1930s, the US did draw up a plan to invade Canada: It will kick off with the seizing of a strategically valuable port city. US soldiers would then sever undersea cables, destroy bridges and rail lines to paralyze infrastructure. Major Canadian cities on the shores of lakes and rivers would be captured in order to blunt any civilian resistance.

1. Moving Military Defence Away from Solely US

Due to an essential need for advanced conventional (non-nuclear) under-ice capabilities, Ottawa seems to be prioritising building of twelve new units of submarines as well as maintenance package (37 billion Euros package) to non-US ship building firms.  It will select either South Korea or Germany vendors to deliver the boats. This clearly demonstrates a desire to avoid over-relianceof defence-industrial dependency on US and a sign of deteriorating relationship between US and Canada.  

2. Will US Invade Canada Given How Egoistic Donald Trump is and also Carney's Refusal to Submit His Country To Bullying Tactics?

Honestly, I hope this does not happen else it will be very bad for the global economies. Given that Donald Trump has only a few more years before his presidential tenure end and also the upcoming mid-term US election that is strongly anticipated to change the current political landscape, there is an extremely low probability that war will breakout. 

 

Parting Thoughts

Mark Carney may turn up to be one of the greatest Prime Minister of Canada who refused to let his country be bullied into submission to Trump's demands. His standing ovation speech at the World Economic Forum where he called for "middle powers, such as his own, to work together to counter the rise of hard power and the great power rivalry, in order to build a more cooperative, resilient world", riled Trump badly and he is all-out to hustle Carney. 

Opportunity Arises From the 2nd Major Bitcoin Crash- Margin Call and US$2 Trillion Tumble in Crypto Market.

Somebody told me that Bitcoin ("BTC") is the new digital "Gold". Well, it turns out to be extremely volatile and a bad store of value. From its high of US$125K just a few months back in October 2025, it had plummeted to US$61K at one point in time on 6th February 2026. The most shocking thing is I just bought S$1K worth of BTC at US$78K a few days ago on 3rd February 2026. Suddenly, it just dived further, I made another small nibble of S$500 when BTC hits US$72K and another S$500 at US$63K on 5th February and 6th February respectively. I think I have another S$500 entered at various prices from US$80K to US$90K during my account opening earlier this year with a crypto exchange approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ("MAS").  So in total, I have put up around S$2,500 in capital to speculate in BTC. 

Will Bitcoin Hit Zero?

Personally, I though that the fair value of BTC is zero. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely to ever hit zero. The simple reason is that BTC has come to be embraced by the mainstream financial institution and many governments. In January 2024, the US SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs as financial products. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs has also included BTC as part of their wealth management products. Hence institutional adoption in some way protects BTC from falling to zero. But no one knows exactly how much it will plunge further given the extreme pessimism in market sentiment. 

Additionally, many are waiting for MicroStrategy- which uses leverage to purchase BTC- to collapse. The domino effect if triggered will lead to some very ugly repercussion on global economies. 

Personal Thoughts

Since the flash crash in October 2025, crypto has once again suffered another rout in 2026. I thought that there is now an opening for those like myself who wants to diversify one's traditional investment portfolios into crypto assets.

Trump Tariff Trade War Continues Over US Grand Ambition To Annex Greenland.

Wow, today's SGX blue chip stocks was a sea of mostly red. Market sentiment may have been affected by the recent threats from US to its European allies. The situation has escalated with the European Union ("EU") preparing a retaliatory EUR93 billion package of tariffs against the United States of America should it go ahead to increase the import tariffs on EU nations- Trump has earlier threaten that he will impose the additional Tariff on EU nations until they support the annexation of Greenland. What a mess it has been! Again, the threat of global inflation from sky high import tariffs maybe back and if interest rates starts spiralling upwards again, it will inevitably decimate the SREIT recovery.  

Prime Minister Set in Motion Internal Conflict Within Workers' Party By Asking For A New Nomination For new "Leader of The Opposition".

Just sharing my personal thoughts on the latest development from the Singapore Parliament. It has become more and more interesting as the fiasco continues. Our Prime Minister has moved on to remove Pritam Singh as the "Leader of the Opposition" in Singapore Parliament after the dreaded motion. Then, he went on to ask the Workers' Party ("WP") to nominate "another suitable" candidate. I don't think the Workers' Party will accept this post or nomination. Accepting this will mean challenging the WP veterans of Pritam Singh and Sylvia Lim and lead to lots of internal conflicts. Nonetheless, this is a brilliant move by the PAP folks....well....there is always a chance that WP might erupt into an internal fight over who should lead the party and then self-disintegrate.   

Crazy Donald Trump Kidnapped President of Venezuela- Will Global Stock Markets Tanked This Week?

The million dollar question today is how much will the stock market crash? Donald Trump has once again screwed up the already declining world order by attacking Venezuela and then kidnapping its president. US Delta force executed a dramatic "man grabbing" operations from the Venezuela presidential residency and then spirited him back to US to face drug trafficking charges. 

The irony is not lost when Russia condemned US for its aggressive action against Venezuela. The statement from Russia foreign affairs: “This morning, the United States carried out an act of armed aggression against Venezuela. This causes deep concern and condemnation,” Russia said in a statement from its Foreign Ministry. The pretexts cited to justify such actions are unfounded. Ideologized hostility has prevailed over practical pragmatism and over a willingness to build relations based on trust and predictability.”. It is strange that Russia made the aforesaid comments five years into the nation’s own war in Ukraine. Saying that, the ironic double standard also falls back on Donald Trump who has been against the war in Ukraine started by Russia. It's a bloody mess and is not at all good for the global stock markets. 

Parting Thoughts:

Looks like whoever has the military muscle can now dictate and do what they want with other countries and subject others to their will. Even folks in China has commented on forum that perhaps China should take a leaf out of Donald Trump's playbook and kidnap the President of Taiwan by using the same military operations.