Hi Folks,
welcome back to Investment Income for Life! This week I
want to talk about a stock that has given a lot of investors whiplash in 2026:
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd, better known as CATL (HKEX: 3750). Since
its IPO on HKEX in May 2025, this stock has been on my watchlist but it just
kept climbing higher and higher till almost HKD800 per share relative to its IPO
price of HKD263 per
share. It is the undisputed king of EV batteries, yet its Hong Kong shares have
crashed from a record HK$794.50 in June to just HK$338.40
as of 22 October 2026. That is a 57% drop in about four months. So is this a
bargain in the making, or a falling knife? Let's dig into the numbers together.
1.
Meet CATL, the Battery Giant
CATL was
founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Ningde, Fujian. It is the world's
largest maker of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and also the No. 1
supplier of energy storage system (ESS) batteries. In 2025 it held 39.2% of the
global EV battery market, its ninth straight year at the top, and 30.4% of
global ESS shipments, its fifth straight year as leader.
Roughly 70%
of revenue comes from EV batteries, about 15 to 20% from energy storage, and
the balance from battery materials, recycling, lithium mining and other
businesses. The A shares have traded in Shenzhen (300750) since 2018. The H
shares listed in Hong Kong on 20 May 2025 at HK$263, the biggest IPO in the
world that year, and joined the Hang Seng Index in February 2026.
One quirk
worth knowing: the H-share float is tiny, only about 218 million out of 4.63
billion shares. That small float is why the H shares have traded at a large,
and very jumpy, premium to the A shares.
2.
The Share Price Rollercoaster

Here is the
ride so far. From the IPO at HK$263, the stock more than doubled by October
2025, consolidated through the turn of the year, then rocketed after a blowout
Q1 2026 to an all-time high of HK$794.50 in June. Since then it has been
one-way traffic down. At HK$338.40, the shares are 33% below the 2025 year-end
close of HK$505.50, though still about 29% above the IPO price.
3.
Key Events You Should Know
•
20 May 2025: Hong Kong listing at HK$263,
raising about US$4.6bn. Shares jumped 16% on debut.
•
9 Mar 2026: FY2025 results. Revenue up 17%, net
profit up 42%, record gross margin of 26.3%, and a final dividend of RMB 6.957
per share.
•
1 Apr 2026: China cut the battery export VAT
rebate from 9% to 6%.
•
Apr 2026: Q1 profit jumped 48.5%. The H/A
premium hit a record 46 to 48%.
• 28 to 30 Apr 2026: CATL placed 62.4 million new H
shares at HK$628.20, raising HK$39.2bn, the largest Hong Kong equity
deal of 2026.
•
Jun 2026: Record high of HK$794.50. BNP Paribas
downgraded the H shares as the premium to A shares reached 55%.
•
24 Jul 2026: 1H26 profit up 42%. Interim
dividend RMB 1.411 per share, plus an A-share buyback of RMB 20 to 40bn (shares
to be cancelled).
•
1 Sep 2026: A 2% consumption tax on lithium
batteries kicked in, rising to 4% from September 2027.
•
Sep 2026: Xiaomi and Li Auto shifted some orders
to in-house and tier-two battery suppliers.
•
20 to 22 Oct 2026: Q3 profit of RMB 21.25bn
missed consensus, gross margin slid to 20.7%, and JPMorgan cut the H shares to
Neutral. The stock fell to HK$338.40.
4.
The Scorecard at a Glance
Here are the key numbers side by
side. Note that FY2026 covers only nine months and is unaudited.
|
Metric
|
FY2025 (full year)
|
FY2026 (9M to 30 Sep)
|
|
Revenue
|
RMB 423.7bn (+17%)
|
RMB 442.1bn (+56%)
|
|
Net profit (attributable)
|
RMB 72.2bn (+42%)
|
RMB 64.5bn (+32%)
|
|
Earnings per share
|
RMB 16.14
|
RMB 14.13
|
|
Gross margin
|
26.3% (5-year high)
|
22.7% (Q3: 20.7%)
|
|
Free cash flow (est.)
|
~RMB 88bn
|
~RMB 17bn
|
|
Dividend per share
|
RMB 7.964 (~HK$8.84)
|
RMB 1.411 interim (HK$1.629)
|
|
Payout ratio
|
50%
|
~15% of 1H profit
|
|
Cash & bank balances
|
RMB 333.5bn
|
RMB 372.1bn (30 Jun)
|
|
NAV per share
|
~HK$82.0
|
~HK$96.2
|
|
Price / NAV
|
6.2x
|
3.5x
|
5.
Growth Is Strong, but Quality Is Slipping
On the
surface, growth looks fantastic. Revenue for just the first nine months of 2026
already exceeds the whole of FY2025, up 56% year-on-year, powered by energy
storage which grew a whopping 88% in the first half. The problem is that profit
is not keeping pace. Net profit grew 32%, and the gap is widening every
quarter. In Q3, revenue rose 59% but profit rose only 15%.
The culprit
is margins. Gross margin has slid from 26.3% in FY2025 to 20.7% in Q3, the
third straight quarterly decline. A heavier mix of lower-value products, the
smaller export rebate and the new 2% consumption tax are all eating into
profitability. And remember, that tax applies for the whole of Q4, so the next
quarter will not get a free pass.
6.
Cash Flow Has Weakened Sharply
For income
investors like us, cash flow is what really pays the dividends. FY2025 was a
superb cash year, with roughly RMB 88bn of free cash flow, about 1.2 times
reported profit. 2026 is a very different story. Operating cash flow fell 24%
for the nine months and was a mere RMB 1.4bn in Q3, because receivables and
inventories each ballooned by around 50%. Meanwhile capex is running at record
levels. Nine-month free cash flow is only about RMB 17bn, roughly a quarter of
reported profit. That is a yellow flag I would not ignore.
7.
The Balance Sheet Is a Fortress
Now for the
good news. CATL is sitting on RMB 372bn of cash, about four times its bank
borrowings of RMB 95bn. Leverage is under 10% of total assets, the current
ratio is a comfortable 1.6x, and the company actually earns more in interest
income than it pays out. On top of that, the April placement topped up the war
chest with HK$39bn raised at near-record prices. Liquidity is simply not a
concern here.
8.
What About the Dividends?
CATL has
paid out 50% of profit for three years running, delivering a total dividend of
RMB 7.964 per share for FY2025 (about HK$8.84). The 2026 interim payout,
however, was trimmed to just 15% of first-half profit, although management
paired it with a sizeable RMB 20 to 40bn A-share buyback with the shares to be
cancelled.
Here is the
catch for income seekers. Because the H shares have traded at a big premium,
the yield is modest. On the FY2025 payout, the trailing yield was only about
1.75% at the 2025 year-end price. Even at today's much lower price, the yield
based on last year's full dividend is around 2.6%, which is not exactly an
income stock. Also note the buyback is executed in A shares, so H-share holders
benefit only indirectly. The key question is whether the full 50% payout
returns with the FY2026 final dividend.
9.
Valuation Has Reset
After a 57%
fall from the peak, valuation looks a lot more reasonable. Trailing P/E has
dropped from about 28x at the end of 2025 to around 15x, and price-to-NAV has
compressed from 6.2x to 3.5x. That is still a premium to book value, but I reckon justifiable for a business earning a return on equity above 20%.
For those investors who subscribed to the share placement exercise at HK$628.20 per share and whereby HK$ 39.2 billion (approximately SGD 6.5 billion) was raised, the current crash in valuation is devastating. It means that new entrant shareholders are buying CATL at an almost whopping 50% discount to takeover their shares.
10.
What I Am Watching Next
•
Q4 2026 margins: management expects a recovery,
but the consumption tax bites for the full quarter.
•
Price pass-through: whether carmakers agree to
share the new tax costs.
•
Market share in China: install share has slipped
from 47.7% in Q1 to 41.3% in Q3 as tier-two players gain ground.
•
Working capital: receivables and inventories
need to turn back into cash.
•
FY2026 final dividend: will the 50% payout ratio
make a comeback?
•
Overseas expansion: progress at the Hungary
(Debrecen) plant and the Spain joint venture with Stellantis.
11. Parting
Thoughts
CATL remains
the dominant, highly profitable and cash-rich leader in EV and energy storage
batteries, and storage has become a genuine second growth engine. But the 2026
story has shifted from growth with expanding margins to growth with shrinking
margins and weaker cash conversion, made worse by tax changes and big customers
diversifying their suppliers.
At around
15x trailing earnings, the H shares now price in a good chunk of that bad news.
Still, the next two quarters of margins and cash flow will tell us whether this
is just a healthy reset or the start of a longer de-rating. For
dividend-focused investors, the yield is not compelling enough on its own, so
this is more of a growth-at-a-reasonable-price watchlist candidate than a core
income holding. Personally, I would wait for evidence of margin stabilisation
and a return to the 50% payout before getting excited.
Ok folks, that's all from me
today. Have a great week ahead!
(Disclaimer: This post is for information and education only and is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial adviser. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision.)