According to the post by Peter G.de Krassel (he is a so called strategic analyst and contemporary social commentator) on South China Morning Post on 24 May 2020, the singular advantage Singapore has over Hong Kong is its affordable public housing. On the political and economic fronts, Singapore is no better than Hong Kong. Even in the fight against coronavirus, Singapore is left far far behind Hong Kong.
Well, I find it strange that Peter is dragging in Singapore again for his social commentary post of Hongkongers and Hong Kong Corporation contemplating whether to stay in Hong Kong or move to Singapore due to the lingering protest and passing of new security law by China. He also went on to make the remark that "Singapore like China is effectively a one-party state". This is a typical western "Ang Mo" view that either you are a democracy like the USA or you are deemed an autocratic nation. So if you are an autocratic nation, then something is very wrong with your political system and the associated democratic attributes of such system.
In my personal opinion, Peter Krassel got it all wrong. Such Ang Mo don't seemed to understand that there is a Mao-era China and a Deng Xiaoping era China albeit being seemed to be a one-party state but in actual fact, there is a world of difference. Deng Xiaoping revamped the politics at the bureaucracy level which bears qualities of democratic society system such as introduction of competition and accountability. This paved the way for the rise of modern China to its current greatness which is continuing its evolution under the Xi Jinping era. In addition, I do not know why Peter Krassel insisted on his assertion that Singapore is similar to China due to its opaque political system that leads to the perpetual election of the People's Action Party (PAP).
It is an absolute fallacy to think that there is no democracy in Singapore and that the PAP is not accountable to Singaporeans. The 2011 General Election whereby public housing prices and shortages were hot button issues is a perfectly good example. If the PAP had not listened, it would surely have gone out of power in the future. A U-turn was made with the step down of Mah Bow Tan from cabinet and the appointment of Khaw Boon Wah as the new Minister of National Development. From there on, Khaw did a fantastic job of resolving the BTO shortages housing issue by building first instead of Mah's wait first then build. HDB and EC eligibility wage ceiling were also raised to help the sandwiched class and more generous housing grants were also given out.
Anyway, comparing Hong Kong and Singapore are like comparing chalk and cheese. Hong Kong has a great hither-land, China, to rely on even if things turned chaotic for a while. Singapore unfortunately does not have such overwhelming luxury. I cannot imagine freedom of speech and human rights such as staging violent protests and beating up people with different viewpoints can happen in Singapore without permanent damage to our reputation and the eventual demise of our economy and the loss of jobs of many Singaporeans due to the exodus of investors from riots.
Great to learn a bit more about Hong Kong from a Singaporean perspective. Yet, as a Hong Konger, I have a few reservations regarding your view. Certainly we do rely a lot economically on China, but we also have the most important advantage-- our rule of law system, especially before 1997, that empowers us to fend off competitions from Shanghai and Shenzhen, let alone Macau. As much as we had an effective and fair rule of law system, among other socio-political aspects in the society, under the British rule, we are experiencing almost the opposite of it currently. That is exactly why the majority of us would stand up to China's blatant violation of our freedom and rights under the Basic Law, by the introduction of the infamous Extradition Bill last June and national Security law last week, even we knew from Day 1 that angering the boss would not render good results economically. As a frequent reader of CNA and the straits times, I am aware that many of the protesters are often depicted as violent and striving for independence of HK. Not that all of them are not, but before making a conclusion on such an thorny issue, I would like to kindly invite you to take into account views from both sides. Majority of the protesters, I would say, are peaceful, rational and non-violent of different age group and social strata. As exemplified by the District Election and the 2 million turnout in the peaceful demonstration in last June, the public support we have comes only from the unity and peacefulness we demonstrated at the start of the movement. Some of the protesters are facing a jail time of 10 years on charge of riot, yet they are still willing to come out and express their opinion peacefully, (definitely would not be due to money coming from 'foreign sources' as simple math can tell you why it doesn't worth it at all) until the major incident at 21/7 in a suburb district in Yuen Long. I am in no position to conclude the incident as it may be biased for me to do so, but I would suggest you to look up the issue online and search for more information to gain a more through understanding on why some protesters take a more aggressive approach.
ReplyDeleteAll in all, thank you again for analyzing the differences and similarities between the two cities and offering a unique perspective on the issue of HK. I enjoy reading your blog on reits and dividend investment very much and really learnt a lot from your successful trading and detailed analysis. Look forward to more of your blog articles in the future and truly appreciate your sharing.
Hi, really curious to know, what outcome do the protesters hope to achieve? Given HK is part of China (whether as an SAR now or post-2047), the protests seem to me to be like London protesting to leave UK or NY protesting to leave US.
DeleteAre the majority of protesters aiming for full independence from China? I think we both know China will use any force necessary to prevent that, so is it worth the protesters and people of HK to pay the price?
Hi Income Chaser, thanks for posting and sharing your thoughts & viewpoints. I have many good colleagues and buddies from Hong Kong. They are one of the most hardworking and resilient folks I have ever known who always think out of the box in complex situations. These are no doubt a result of the liberal social liberal conditions upbringing in Hong Kong.
DeleteI did a posting on the above as I find it strange that Peter Krassel kept dragging in Singapore to compare to Hong Kong when I thought that the 2 cities are as different as Apple and Orange in terms of background and history.
I do understand that the majority of the HK protests are peaceful and the strong desire to defend autonomous basic rule of law. For this particular write-up (esp the last paragraph), I am pointing out to the minority extreme behavior that would have caused a severe repercussion and ripple exponential effect if it happened in Singapore, since given the historical separation from Malaysia, we are very much vulnerable and on our own. A very good example is the Public Inquiry into the 2013 Little India Riot in Singapore to try to prevent it from happening again.
My personal thoughts on Hong Kong is that with or without the basic security law introduction, Hong Kong's future is still as bright as ever in the decades to come given the dynamic nature of its society, economy and people. I have actually increased my current investment with exposure into Hong Kong to take advantage of the current all time low asset prices.
Great to know more about your views on HK. Hopefully HK will still flourish as you have predicted. As for the aims of the protest, though not everyone shares the same aim, it would be safe to say that majority of them hope for the so called Five Demands. Again, I believe HK independence, as the blogger pointed out with convincing source, is not an option on the table, at least for now.
DeleteDetails of the Five Demands:
https://www.scmp.com/yp/discover/news/hong-kong/article/3065950/hong-kong-protests-what-are-five-demands-what-do
I think the above article summarizes them quite well.
As for comparing HK and SG, I also contend that a simple comparison in one single aspect would be hugely unfair. While both cities are aiming to be a financial center, I observe that HK has always been more China-centric with SG being more diversified and ASEAN-centric. Do correct me if I am wrong, but I guess this can mainly be attributed to the different geographical locations. Thus, comparing the two cities directly in any one single perspective is not a fair comparison in my view. Yet, as a Hker who have visited SG for several times, I do observe some rapid development economic wise in SG over the last few decades while HK is staggering to do so.
With the current valuation in HK reit and property stocks, it does offer a great opportunity, which comes with great risk as well due to political instability. Personally I intend to cut down exposure to HK stocks and explore other markets, such as Japan (reits) and US (tech stocks). Once again thanks for your detailed sharing and look forward to more of your pasages.
Thanks, yes good reminder to read on 5 demands. With the first demand given, I think the focus moves to the 5th demand (on electing HK's own Chief Executive), as demand 2-4 is more about amnesty and accountability but don't change political systems. Thinking about it, I think it's a fair request/outcome, London and NY do elect their own mayors, so why not HK? It's also probably digestible by Beijing vs HK independence.
DeleteBut I think from Beijing's point of view, obviously they don't want to (and will not) give in. Also, after the 1st demand was met there was no reduction in protests, so the government might not be keen to give in to 5 demands only for a 6th demand to appear. Because the protest is so decentralized, there's no protest leader to negotiate with, so I think that's why there is a stalemate. My outsider's point of view is more dialogue and negotiation would be great.
I am a buyer in the HK market due to the discount to intrinsic value. For me, its hard to imagine an end of the world scenario in the long term. For HK and Asia, while this deglobalization period will hurt, the risk reward ratio is in our favour. Furthermore for HK, it has always been a gateway to China, so unless upcoming sanctions are crippling to the Chinese economy (ie weaponizing the USD), HK still is good risk/reward bet.
DeleteHate to dip into politics, but to me, a HKer, the protests are irrational. It seems to me the protestors dont have a well thought out end goal in mind nor the process to get there. Without level headed thinking, its impossible to have a rational and balanced perspective, because lets face it there are positives and negatives to everything. Instead, what we are left with is severe disruption to ordinary people and misinformation campaigns on social media that enrages facts based people like me.
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Deletehypothetically speaking, if china allows HK to get independence and cut all ties in-between, including flow of goods, people, money, etc, what will HK be ?
ReplyDeleteHi James, wun lah. The majority of Hongkongers do not want independence from China ....it is the minority (less than 20%) according to a Reuters poll done in Dec'19 in HK.
ReplyDelete